A match made in heaven it surely isn’t, but global warming has definitely played its part in the recent tragic events hitting California. The wildfires sweeping across parts of California have forced half a million to flee their homes, left 400,000 acres of land a charred ruin, and reduced some 1,300 homes to rubble.

The terrifying part — if we hadn’t already seen it — is the prediction that firestorms (or bushfires) like these could very well become part of the norm for areas like California, according to Ronald Neilson, a professor at Oregon State University and bioclimatologist with the USDA Forest Service.

The catastrophic fires are in line with what climate change models have been predicting for the past several years. Sadly, the predictions also suggest that these fires may just be the beginning to a new way of life.

"This is exactly what we’ve been projecting to happen, both in short-term fire forecasts for this year and the longer term patterns that can be linked to global climate change," said Neilson. Thankfully, for all of us out there who do see the damage, he prefaced his comments by saying that "You can’t look at one event such as this and say with certainty that it was caused by a changing climate…"

"But things just like this are consistent with what the latest modeling shows," Neilson continued, "and may be another piece of evidence that climate change is a reality, one with serious effects."

Many North Americans will be aware of the drought inland, and the increased rainfall along the coast. This is a trend that is mirrored in Africa, and is identified as the biggest global warming threat affecting the earth in a recent report. Coastal regions would find themselves encountering higher rainfalls, whereas inland areas would see an increase in drought-like conditions.

Neilson’s studies add more information to these reports. With increased global warming, the seas are naturally going to be evaporating a little bit quicker. More water will be harvested within the clouds, with only one way to go. These periods of increased rainfall will be followed by periods of drought: a yin and yang of the earth’s climate.

The problem behind the California fires — and the predictions that more will follow — is in the fact that the water will create a boon of vegetation. The increased density of vegetation will, naturally, be the proverbial tinder-box during a drought period. All of that wonderful growth of flora will go up in smoke, creating fires that will increase in intensity through each cycle.

"As the planet warms, more water is getting evaporated from the oceans and all that water has to come down somewhere as precipitation," said Neilson. "That can lead, at times, to heavier vegetation loads popping up and creation of a tremendous fuel load. But the warmth and other climatic forces are also going to create periodic droughts. If you get an ignition source during these periods, the fires can just become explosive."

Current studies show that there is a La Niña event occurring, which is believed to be compounding the Californian fires. When it swings back around in 2 to 4 years, the rain will sweep the coast, and revitalize the regrowth.

Neilson’s research group at Oregon State, in partnership with the Forest Service, have been using models combined to predict weather and fire patterns. Using these models, they accurately predicted the Californian fires, as well as the drought that has recently hit parts of the Southeast, including Georgia and Florida.

Studies that were released 5 years ago by Neilson and other OSU researchers, predicted that the American West could very likely become both wetter and warmer over the following century. These are conditions that, as laid out above, would lead to repeated catastrophic fires. Fires that would be larger than any in recent history, including the current firestorm sweeping the landscape.

The Arctic polar ice is melting, the Southwest of America is burning, and my home country is thirsty. For god’s sake, how is there not more action being taken!

Authors Note - As an aside, I have just written a paralell blog post at my website here, expanding on what I’ve said above. I felt the need to clarify the facts, and I wanted to show people the video I’ll be looking at in my next post.

Science Daily — Massive California Fires Consistent With Climate Change, Experts Say

CNN: California Wildfires Coverage

ENN — Australian farmers face bankruptcy from drought