The U.S. military has been pushing for the development of alternative fuels for a while now, and nobody paid much attention until the Pentagon finally put a price tag on the oil habit. As reported by Roxana Tiron in thehill.com, last week Pentagon officials disclosed that getting conventional petroleum fuel to remote combat locations in Afghanistan costs a whopping $400 per gallon.

There couldn’t be a more clear illustration of why the “drill baby drill” mentality is a non-sequitur when it comes to energy security.  Regardless of whether petroleum fuels are domestic or imported, they need to be transported to their point of use.  That’s not much of a problem when you’ve got modern seaports, highways and fuel depots, but to paraphrase one infamous former Secretary of Defense, you have to fight the war you have, not the war that’s got the ideal infrastructure to support your fuel of choice.

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It is good to see that there are still some surprises in the world, and - in particular - in politics. Still, truly shocking political events - and reactions to them - are rare. Careful observers can see most Hill happenings coming from miles down the road and months ahead of schedule. We know some things will happen already, still our political and media culture waits out the inevitable before allowing events to capture headlines, ride roughshod over public opinion and exert themselves on political discourse.

Borrowing a page from Maureen Dowd’s “imaginings” playbook, this trip to 2010 explains how Washington’s worst-kept secrets will effect the climate change bill by collaring the President and Congressional Dems, and threatening our collective energy future.

FEBRUARY 10, 2010
WASHINGTON, DC

REACTION MIXED AS SENATE CLIMATE BILL GOES TO FLOOR
Critics Assail Compromises While Some Laud Any Action in Time of Political Turmoil

The Senate will likely take up floor debate of its climate bill this week after the proposed legislation was released from committee with considerable compromise put in place to help win votes from reluctant Senators who are facing election-year political pressure and mounting disappointing news about the economy and the war in Afghanistan.

The White House and Congressional Democratic leaders had hoped to have a climate change bill in place before the global climate change conference held in Copenhagen last December. Instead, American negotiators went to the United Nations conference with only the promise of continued domestic effort on greenhouse gas reduction, and observers felt that the Copenhagen conference’s result was all too similar to the Kyoto agreement it was supposed to build upon. While the world left Denmark with a resolution that features very strong aspirational emissions targets, there remains no enforcement mechanism in place, and it is unlikely that the world’s leading emitters will ratify any of the agreement’s most restrictive standards.

The Copenhagen failure took much of the momentum away from domestic climate change legislation, and action on energy and environmental reform has been further hampered as time gets closer to 2010’s mid-term elections and bad news on the economy mounts. Consistent with moribund projections, holiday sales figures were down for a second consecutive year, and the markets took a tumble as cautious investors reacted to retailers’ figures.

The tumble followed earlier market reaction to early January’s fourth quarter earnings announcements, which showed that in spite of stirring signs of economic strength, real recovery is still far from solidified.

The combination of slow sales and low earnings had brought markets back to a point where many observers felt valuation had leveled off from last fall’s slight recovery bubble. But, as final confirmation of double-digit unemployment became reality with last week’s announcement of jobless figures, the market dropped further.

All of the disappointing economic news made it impossible to get a climate change bill to the floor of the Senate without strong trade protections put in place for the domestic industries that are the most energy-intensive.

The protections spurred objections from global trading partners and concerns from observers worldwide that embedding carbon leakage tariff adjustments into the legislation amounts to protectionism and may further stunt economic recovery. Still, Senate negotiators had to include the provisions to win support from Midwestern Democrats who want both to claim progressive credentials by voting for a climate bill, but also needed any such bill to deliver not only protections - but also dollars - for heavy-emitting industries that employ their constituents.

The bill is expected to be debated next week after hearings on the President’s dismissal of General Stanley McChrystal are complete. In late 2009, Obama dismissed McChrystal from his post as commanding general in Afghanistan amid a very public disagreement about troop levels and strategy. The President has faced immense criticism from all sides after dismissing McChrystal. Republicans have criticized him for putting his own “yes man” in charge of executing the plan that McChrystal concocted because he subsequently adopted the recommendation to elevate troop levels. From his left, Obama has faced accusations that escalation is the wrong course and is a repudiation of the “call to action” that he received with his Nobel Peace Prize award last October.

Pundits had expected the Senate climb to be more difficult even than the House’s trials in passing the Waxman-Markey climate bill in early summer last year. Senate rules, election-year pressures and the fact that the House bill relied on heavy support from very populous blue states to win passage all spelled trouble for the Senate bill. Also, Obama’s own clout on the Hill was heavily damaged after last year’s failure to pass a strong health care bill.

Trade protections, heavy dilution of greenhouse has emissions targets, watered-down fuel and building energy efficiency standards, and huge cash handouts to utilities and the oil, gas and coal industries are just some of the elements of the final Senate bill that are drawing fire. As they did for the much-stronger Waxman-Markey bill, leading green groups like Greenpeace are opposing the Senate bill. Others insist that while the bill is imperfect, an incremental approach to energy and environmental legislation may be the best way to proceed.

Whatever the result, it now seems highly unlikely that the House and Senate could possibly agree on a bill in conference committee during this session, and any climate change legislation will likely have to wait until after mid-term elections. Of course, by that time, President Obama will be ramping up his own re-election bid and with hurt feelings among many of the constituencies that supported him in 2008 (gay rights groups and anti-war activists chief among them), Obama may choose to take on some more mainstream initiatives and leave climate change to the side for a while

Take it for what it is: my imagination. Except that we already know that most of this WILL certainly happen. What we don’t know yet, is how we’ll react.

By 2011 the US Army’s Space & Missile Defense Command has plans to deploy a spy ship, which will be unmanned over Afghanistan. While this is a controversial move in itself, some eco-enthusiasts are applauding the consideration to model the aircraft after an experimental hybrid airship which took flight on a number of occasions in 2006.

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A new report by Maplecroft, a world leader in global risk assesment, lists the countries at the greatest and the least risk of climate change problems.

The new study examined 166 countries in total. With climate change, it is hard to guess who will be hit the worst, but here is one scientific attempt at ranking the countries’ vulnerability to climate change.

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For every 100,000 births, 1,600 mothers die; in wealthy countries the rates range from 1 to 12. In one remote northeastern province, Badakhshan, 6,507 mothers die for every 100,000 births, according to a 2005 report in the medical journal Lancet. In all, 26,000 Afghan women a year die while pregnant or giving birth. The main causes of these deaths are hemorrhage and obstructed labor, which can be fatal if a woman cannot obtain a Caesarean section. Even if the mother survives, obstructed labor without a Caesarean usually kills the baby.

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In an exciting effort to protect its natural heritage, the National Environment Protection Agency of Afghanistan has released the country’s first list of protected species, which includes 20 mammals, 7 birds, 4 plants, an amphibian and an insect.

The protections come at a crucial time for many of the species, since a previous Presidential Decree which outlawed hunting of endangered animals expired last March. Among the animals now protected from pelt-traders and poachers are snow leopards, wolves and brown bears.

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Good news from Afghanistan this week: the country declared its first internationally recognized national park today, called Band-e-Amir, which includes a striking series of six deep blue lakes in one of the country’s best-known natural areas.

The area of Band-e-Amir is near the Bamyan Valley, where 1,500-year-old giant Buddha statues once stood before being destroyed by the Taliban.

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Coupled with economics, dwindling natural resources, and the dangers of transporting fuel in war zones (half of all US casualties in Iraq are from attacks on fuel carrying convoys), the military plans to spend economic stimulus money on alternative fuels and energy conservation.

Traditionally, the Department of Defense has cared little about saving money. The recent shift towards alternative fuels as a military priority is an effort to reduce casualties rather than save natural resources or funds. “The honest-to-God truth, the most compelling reason to do it is it saves lives,” said Brigadier General Steven Anderson, director of operations and logistics for the Army.  Saving money, preserving dwindling natural resources and lessening U.S. dependence on foreign sources are lesser priorities of the alternative fuels and energy conservation initiatives.

The Iraq and Afghanistan Wars have set the record for the most fuel consumption of any war in US history.  Since the War on Terror began in 2001, the amount of oil consumption has increased from 50 million gallons to 500 million gallons a year at bases.  Using Economic Stimulus Package money, the Pentagon has several alternative fuels and energy saving projects planned.

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The US State Department has warned students not to go to Mexico during spring break since drug gangs threaten violence. Drug cartels are threatening the stability of nations around the globe, assassinating police and government officials. A record opium crop is providing funding for the Taliban in Afghanistan. Can decriminalization of narcotics be a solution? Neuroscience offers new hope to cure addition.

While Mexico is not yet officially on the US State Department’s warning list, it is fast approaching. Gangs often interrupt police radios threatening police offers. These officers are often killed in hours. The military is replacing the police in an attempt to cut down on drug violence. More than 6000 people died in Mexico from such violence in 2008.

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Terrorist attacks occur almost daily in larger and smaller numbers impacting civilians all over the world (Terrorism Research Center) however it is the large scale attacks in major global financial centers that leave the world reeling in shock.  An attack on a town in Afghanistan, Gujarat or Dagestan is quickly forgotten as people resume their daily lives the next day.  But an attack on New York or London destabilizes the country’s entire economic machine for several days, leaving its citizens and those elsewhere in the world fearful and helpless. When the major financial center is Mumbai, the nerve center of an economy that is growing at 9% per annum, the terrorist’s motive is greater. Perhaps because economic growth in a country with which a terrorist can ethnically identify, is a telling sign that the threads of ‘evil’ have become deeply ingrained within his own people.

BBC released a documentary in 2005 entitled “The Power of Nightmares.” It outlines the history of the Neo-Conservative movement in America and interestingly enough it shows how Al-Qaeda and the Neo-Conservatives were rooted in the same ideology: that the economic prosperity of the West represented a decline of social values. For the Neo-Cons this spurred a desire to create state terror in the guise of war.  For Al-Qaeda it spurred a desire to declare war in the guise of terror.

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The Army had begun pushing for environmental sustainability in all of their bases, starting with Fort Bragg in North Carolina. And they’re thinking it through as well; not only are they thinking about the current footprint (I’m not going to say it), they’re thinking about the future as well. Since 2001, each village set up within Fort Bragg for training purposes has been made up of shipping containers, reducing the cost from $400,000 to $25,000, and keeping the shipping containers out of the solid waste stream.

But the goal is not solely to save money, but also lives as well.

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A bumper crop of Afghan opium was produced in 2007, which is expected to be repeated in 2008. Despite these record poppy crops, farmers are deeply in debt. The average Afghan poppy grower’s per capita income is about $300, and farmers have to borrow money for seeds, fertilizer, food, and basic necessities from traffickers. The farmers are unable to pay their debts when their crops are eradicated, or they are pressured by local governments and westerners to stop growing. Westerners don’t keep promises to provide free seeds for substitute crops, and creditors demand child wives in payment for debts. The growers’ daughters are called “opium flowers“, and moneylenders seek them out in case of crop failure or family emergency.

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