The musk ox is a large gentle creature similar in weight and stature to a buffalo. They have large curved horns and long shaggy hair and are more closely related to goats and sheep than to oxen. I first fell in love with these animals when I was researching the arctic a while back for work. For those of you that have watched the Planet Earth series you know how cute they are.

In preparation for the warmer summer months, musk ox shed a layer of their fur called qiviut. Pronounced kiv-ee-ute, qiviut is an Inuit word for down or underwool. The qiviut is very soft and warm and easily spun into highly sought after yarn. Warmer than wool and finer than cashmere, it is extremely rare. It is also often referred to as “the cashmere of the north.”

Qiviut’s natural color is a light brown-gray color and can be dyed various shades. It knits up best as a blend; the wool or silk lending memory to the fiber.

This amazing yarn can be purchased from Windy Valley Musk Ox and from the University of Alaska’s Large Animal Research Station where they incorporate environmental practices whenever possible:

Most of our yarn is processed by a small, family-operated mill. They strive to be as earth-friendly as possible, following organic wool processing practices and using non-metallic dyes. This philosophy compliments our process of hand combing the qiviut from live animals.

Also available in roving and unprocessed, qiviut is a luxurious fiber perfect for a scarf or shawl. Save your pennies because this yarn is pricey.

Speaking in a telephone briefing last Friday, Jennifer Francis, an atmospheric scientist at Rutgers University in New Jersey, said that the Arctic and Antarctic are exhibiting opposite effects to the climate change affecting our planet.

It has been well documented that the North Pole is suffering from melting ice; however down south, in Antarctica, the climate change is powering winds that lower the temperature. “All the evidence points toward human-made effects playing a major role in the changes that we see at both poles and evidence that contradicts this is very hard to find,” said Francis.

To be published in the May 6^th edition of the journal Eos, Francis and her co-authors conducted an examination of many previous studies about polar climate, and concluded that it “further depletes the arsenal of those who insist that human-caused climate change is nothing to worry about.”

The Arctic

The paper rightfully combines man-made global warming with natural variation, to explain what is happening in the north. They describe the conditions as a “perfect Arctic storm,” referring to human-generated carbon dioxide emissions and natural climate variations.

“Natural climate variability and global warming were actually working together and they’ve sent the Arctic into a new state for the climate that has much less sea ice,” said James Overland, an oceanographer at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “There’s very little chance for the climate to return to the conditions of 20 years ago.”

Antarctica

Conversely, Antarctica is exhibiting very different characteristics; and researchers believe that is because of the ozone hole that hovers above.

Gareth Marshall, of the British Antarctic Survey, points to changes in air pressure combined with the depleted stratospheric levels of ozone as the culprits for an increase in westerly winds. These winds sweep in along the Southern Ocean, isolating much of Antarctica from the impact of global warming.

The notable exception to this however is the Antarctic Peninsula, which sits just above the latitudes at which the winds sweep in. We have already seen what happens to locations that are not protected by these westerly winds (ie, the breaking up of the Larson Ice Shelf).

Good News / Bad News

The late 90’s – especially here in Australia where we are one of the nations closest and most affected by the ozone hole – was predominated by the need to change our ways. We had to stop using less of the chemicals that bore the hole in the ozone layer. Experts believe that the ozone layer will be fully recovered by 2070, as a result of strict international agreements banning these chemicals.

Subsequently, Francis and her colleagues believe that the ozone’s recovery will open the way for Antarctica to be subject to the same effects that are eating away at its northern cousin. It is, in all its glory, the epitome of “good news/bad news.”

Image courtesy of Wikipedia, depicting the collapsing Larsen B Ice Shelf and a comparison to the U.S. state of Rhode Island.

This report adds weight to a growing number of reports and findings that are pointing to 2008’s summer as a turning point for the Arctic region; one where there could be no sea-ice at all.

According to the WWF’s report (PDF); “Recently observed changes are happening at rates significantly faster than predicted” by the 2005 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) and last year’s report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

This has led many experts to believe that we are close to a “tipping point,” where if something is not done immediately, sudden and irreversible changes could take place.

Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) is similarly wary of the next summer to hit the Northern Hemisphere, saying that “The set-up for this summer is disturbing.”

In a New Scientist article, Serreze notes that, though the ice has expanded to a size greater this March than March 07, it is made up primarily of very young ice, and on average, is declining by 44,000 km² per year (see graph to left).This is essentially just as bad as there being less ice growth, young ice is not able to withstand the rigors cast upon it during a summer that older ice is.

“There is this thin first-year ice even at the North Pole at the moment,” says Serreze. “This raises the spectre – the possibility that you could become ice free at the North Pole this year.”

Despite all reports though – and be wary of anything you hear in the popular media – a North Pole without sea ice is not in itself significant. To scientists, Serreze notes, “this is just another point on the globe” The worrying point is the lack of multi-year ice buildup.

For example, on average, each year around half of the first year ice formed between September and March, melts during the summer. Or, looking at it from the other side, half stays around for another year. In 2007, almost all of that first year ice disappeared.

Worse for summer ’08 is the fact that the atmospheric phenomenon known as the Arctic oscillation kicked in to its “positive” phase during this past winter. The AO is known to generate winds which push multi-year ice out of the Arctic, and along the east coast of Greenland.

All in all, unless we acquire ourselves a “cooler, more cyclonic pattern” these next few months, we’re going to lose a lot of that ice.

Graph courtesy of NSIDC

More from the GO Network

Younger Sea Ice Bad for Planet

Traditionally March marks the time of year when the Arctic ice is at its highest extent after the Northern Hemisphere’s winter comes to a close. For 40 years NASA satellites have tracked the ice coverage of both Arctic and Antarctic.

So with March half way gone, what is the Arctic looking like?

Not good, is definitely a summation that will be used often. While it hasn’t dipped between any previous low records, it is still covering substantially less than in previous decades.

Shown in the graphic below, we can see that there is another problem to be concerned about. Not only is the sea-ice not covering as much as it should be, but the age of the ice is substantially less than previously recorded.

The age of sea-ice is important because with more summers under its belt, the stronger it gets. Thicker and older ice is better able to stand up to increasing temperatures during summer. However the graphic plainly shows a dramatic drop in ice age, especially in the amount of ice aged 6 years and more.

What this means is that the predominantly red colored ice coverage is at a higher risk of melting, if temperatures increase enough. It isn’t as strong and reliable as the older ice.

The future is unclear for the Arctic, with a string of colder seasons needed before any stability can be brought back to the region.

Related Stories

Younger Sea Ice Bad for Planet

Arctic Ice in Battle for its Life

Live Science - Artic Ice Returns, Thin and Tentative 

Photo Courtesy of fruchtzwerg’s world via Flickr

Graphic Courtesy of NSIDC, S. Drobot, University of Colorado, Boulder

Scott Borgerson of the Council on Foreign Relations, a former U.S. Coast Guard lieutenant commander, has just gone on record as saying that we could be facing a new cold war.

The analogy is both apt and humorously fitting, but is it in any way true? Instead of the historic face-off between the world’s two superpowers, we could be looking at something far different. Instead of just America and Russia, Arctic powers include Canada, Denmark and Norway, in addition to the original two.

Already tensions are rising, in a way that is eerily familiar. Russia is sending submarines and science ships north to investigate how far their continental shelf extends. They’ve planted a flag on the seabed underneath the North Pole, and for the first time since the Cold War, they’ve sent strategic bomber flights over the Arctic.

And yet a US official, who went on record under anonymity, believes that “There’s no ice cold war.”

Borgerson said in a telephone interview recently that “…planting a flag on the sea bottom and renewing strategic bomber flights is provocative,” and added that “I don’t think we’re [the United States] scrambling. We’re sleepwalking … I think the Russians are scrambling and I think the Norwegians and Canadians and Danes are keenly aware.”

Everyone’s scrambling for the best view. Russia isn’t the only one conducting scientific research. All of the Arctic powers are looking at just how far their continental shelves reach. Russia seems to have stepped on toes, and while they aren’t necessarily in direct conflict with the US as of yet, Norway and Denmark definitely have some issues with what Russia is claiming as hers.

Coastal nations, like the 5 involved, are generally happy with the 200 nautical miles that extend from their coastline as sovereign territory. But recent research coming out of the University of New Hampshire and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests that the US shelf might extend an extra 100 nautical miles further than previously thought.

The U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea is what gives the sovereign rights to coastal nations. And many believe that the US should sign the treaty soon. In addition, if a country can meet a set of conditions – scientific, etc – then their coastal boundaries can extend.

“Of course we need to be at the table as ocean law develops,” the U.S. official said. “It’s not like ocean law is going to stop developing if we’re not in there. It’s just going to develop without us.”

What saddens me the most is that you can get your bottom dollar that this does not bode well for the environment. Ask yourself what’s causing the melting of the Arctic, and then look at what they hope to extract. The answer to both questions, is fossil fuel.

Photo Courtesy of arcticroute.com via Flickr

Speaking at the Alaska Forum on the Environment, Ignatius Rigo, a University of Washington climatologist, believes that this summer will see the sea-ice pushed in to the North Atlantic Ocean by a combination of global warming and cyclical climate patterns.

According to Rigo, the remnants of the old sea ice that – thanks to their age – are stronger and thicker, are slowly being pushed in to the North Atlantic where they have no chance of surviving. “The buoys are streaming out,” Rigor said, referring to the markers used to monitor the flushing of ice into the North Atlantic.

The ice that is currently covering the Arctic is not the thick kind that could withstand such temperature and climate shifts as are taking place. Where in 1989 at least 80% of the ice in the Arctic was at least 10 years old, today that percent is down to 3.

So, “Have we passed the tipping point?” he asked. “It’s hard to see how the system may come back.”

This obviously presents us with a new shipping route through the area, but the fact that people are viewing this as a plus is just the epitome of why humanity is going to hell in a hand-basket.

When you consider that one of this planet’s most beautiful animals – the polar bear – is at risk of being wiped off the face of our planet thanks to these ice shortages, and people view shipping as a plus, you somewhat have to just shake your head and wonder; how did humanity get to this self-absorbed piousness that pits themselves above anything or anyone else.

Photo Courtesy of wili_hybrid via Flickr

AP via MSNBC - Too late to keep Arctic sea ice from vanishing?

Arctic becoming the canary in the coal mine for climate change? But oil has briefly hit $100 per barrel and the U.S. economy is tanking. So let’s hold the first-ever oil and gas lease sale in Alaska’s Chukchi Sea … just this once.

Canada’s Boreal Forest a carbon sink twice as powerful as the forests of the tropics? But rising fuel prices have suddenly made it profitable to tap the region’s vast reserves of tar sands … just this once.

Discovering that the coldest, most pristine place on Earth — Antarctica — might also harbor a wealth of oil and gas reserves? Let’s tiptoe around the continent’s edges trying to establish rights to resources below the seabed … just this once.

The list of “just-this-once” announcements from the past few months alone could go on and on, but would make for even more disheartening reading.

For the individual human addict, help sometimes comes in the form of an intervention from friends and loved ones who hope to confront the “just-this-once” behavior before it collapses into outright personal destruction. For an addicted human civilization, though, who will intervene?

Photo courtesy of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration via Wikimedia Commons.

Photo courtesy of Ansgar Walk, via Wikimedia Commons

This might be the secret tech-heavy recipe for pepping up the faltering Atlantic ocean currents that heat Europe. So says industrial engineer, Peter Flynn of the University of Alberta. The cost: $50 billion USD. Ouch. Perhaps an ounce of prevention really is worth a pound of cure.

There's no need to rehash what we already know. The Arctic is melting. It's a fact that we are going to have to come to grips with. Shipping lanes are being changed, animals and natives are being displaced, and ice is disappearing faster than my friends when I attempt to swing the conversation away from bodily functions to politics.

So it's no surprise to see five of the nations likely to be hardest hit up north — Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway and Iceland — come together and issue a cry for help.

"The Arctic and the world cannot wait any longer," environmental ministers from the five nations said in a joint statement after talks in Oslo. "The climate is hurtling towards a turning point after which irreversible processes will have been set in motion."

But it seems that whenever I turn to my news each night to filter through the unimportant to find that which I bring to you each day, there is always another report referencing the massive summertime melt.

The recent Arctic melt crosses a fine line for two reasons that I will now discuss but, for the more observant, were already hinted at in my title.

Many scientists will snub anyone who uses the term "tipping point" purely because, in a lot of cases, they are little understood. Those scientists will dismiss such claims as scaremongering.

This question has me absolutely stumped, and quite honestly, a little baffled.

"Is taking action better than not taking action?"

Apparently, to suggest taking action against not taking action is a statement worthy of "making waves." Peter Tsigaris, a statistician at Thompson Rivers University in Kamloops, Canada, has been making some of those waves in his native country with this suggestion.

Now granted, his claims are directly related to the economy, and not so much the health of his planet around him, but let's not dismiss it due to our failure in high school math. As much as we don't want to admit it, economics is what will ultimately shape the change for the better.

Tsigaris points to a report delivered in 2006 by England's Government Economic Service, which says that if people do not act to curb global warming, the impacts of climate change will drain at least 5 percent — and up to 20 percent — of the global gross domestic product each year. That is compared to an approximate one percent of the annual global GDP to act on it.

Yet still, some believe there is not enough information to act, and that there is still not enough evidence to prove that humans are behind the rise.

Reports of rubber ducks making worldwide pilgrimages, under-ocean currents, and the dissolution of the Northwest Passage have all struck me as fascinating. Whether you believe in a world created by God, or as simply the product of an accident, there is no doubt that our world is a fascinating one.

So I was pleasantly surprised when I read today that China's air is making its way all to Norway, within the Arctic Circle. Now it's not as if I thought air was a centralized system that obeyed the geographical borders we impose on ourselves. But I had never really considered that air patterns would be very similar to their wet cousins.

Zeppelin Mountain, in the snow peaks of Norway, finds Kim Holmen, research director of the Norwegian Polar Institute, testing the air for tiny chemical traces. These traces include chemicals from factories in Russia — some thousand kilometers away — pesticides from Israel, and traces of pollution from China's coal-fired power plants.

"Some days we can definitely tell that the air has come from China," said Kim Holmen from atop the research station, looking out over the picturesque views of fjords, mountains and glaciers of Spitsbergen Island.

"Most of the particles we see come from Europe and Russia," Holmen said of measurements gathered from atop Mount Zeppelin, reached by a cable car. "About 20 percent are from elsewhere."

According to a report conducted by the US Geological Survey, released this past Friday, two-thirds of the world's population of polar bears could simply melt away like their native ice by mid-century.

"There is a definite link between changes in the sea ice and the welfare of polar bears," said Steve Amstrup, who led the research team.

Their fate could be even more uncertain than we currently know, given the unreliability of computer models to perfectly predict the quickly disappearing ice that used to cover the Arctic Ocean, and subsequently provided the bears with a habitat to which they evolved.

At the moment, polar bears number somewhere close to 16,000, and reside throughout the Arctic in Russia, Alaska, Canada and Greenland. Already, areas such as the Northwest Passage have almost totally disappeared, and experts are predicting anywhere between a 40% to total drop-off of summer ice by 2050.

The reports executive summary concluded that by the mid 21st century, a full two-thirds of the bears population could be gone, with remainders living in Canadian Arctic islands and the west coast of Greenland.

The polar bear has recently also been the subject of a potential addition to the Endangered Species Act list, thanks to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services. Unable to successfully hunt on land – being too acclimatized to hunting in the water and on ice – the polar bear would probably begin to suffer in its cub's inability to survive past adolescence, and the females unable to successfully reproduce.

The first report, released by the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC), represent the data at the end of the melt season, or summer. According to the report, released yearly at this time, the 2007 levels of ice in the Arctic Ocean are lower than ever before.

Dr Mark Serreze, an Arctic specialist at the Boulder University of Colorado National Snow and Ice Data Center, says that "It's amazing. It's simply fallen off a cliff and we’re still losing ice."

The report was blunt in its appraisal of the current conditions, stating that "As of today (September 3), ice extent in 2007 was 1 million square kilometers (386,000 square miles) less than the same day in 2005." Sea ice normally stops melting and begins its regrowth sometime in September, and according to reports, that is still a few weeks away. "The bottom line," the report states, is that "2007 has already unseated the 2005 record, but we don't yet know by how much."

It is as a result of these figures that the estimate has arisen that by 2030 there will be no more summer ice if the current rate of drop-off continues.

In fact, the drop off is so total that the Northwest Passage, the space that connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans together, is now almost completely open. It was only a hundred years ago that it would have taken over two years to find a safe passage through what was then thick and compact ice. Researchers also believe that the northeast passage (not yet capitalized due to its unpopularity apparently) could open later this year.

It is estimated by scientists that nearly 25% of the world's undiscovered gas and oil reserves may be in the Arctic. With warming seas making the idea of a Northwest Passage for shipping lanes a reality, the enticement of setting up rigs and scooping resources is causing countries to get out and make claims. Canada, Russia, Denmark, and the United States are all shouting "Mine! Mine!". Oil aside, fishing companies are also eager to start tapping into the region, which could spell disaster for stocks in the region.