Granted, our bushfire seasons are horrific!

OK, so yeah, I’m just having a bit of fun with the different words and descriptions, but I have a point. Not an etymological point, but a point nonetheless.

A Brief Australian History Lesson

The Californian fires have once again brought to light the sheer flammability of our surroundings. I live in Victoria, an Australian state with a very high bushfire rate. Australia has the dubious honor of being the home to what may have been the worst bush/wildfires in the world.

Dubbed the Black Friday Fires, they occurred on the 13th of January, 1939, in Victoria. Almost 20,000 km² (4,942,000 acres, 2000 ha) were destroyed, a total of 71 people lost their lives, several towns were entirely destroyed, and a total of 1,300 buildings were destroyed.

A Royal Commission — a major government public inquiry into an issue in commonwealth countries — determined that three quarters of the state of Victoria was directly or indirectly affected. The Commission noted that "it appeared the whole State was alight on Friday, 13 January, 1939."

1967 saw Tasmania – the only state with a higher likelihood to burn this year than Victoria — suffer a series of fires that later became known as the Black Tuesday bushfires. Over 60 people died, and thousands more were affected. So widespread were the fires that they even encroached upon the capital of Hobart.

And last in my tour of the named fires are the Ash Wednesday Fires. February 16, 1983, saw Victoria and our westerly neighboring state South Australia (original, aren’t we!) suffer from fires that took the lives of 75 Australians, and razed more than 2000 homes. The summer bushfires of 1982/1983 razed approximately 5,200 km² (1,284,000 acres).

El Niño

I’m not sure if many of you are aware, but I copped a thorough beating on Digg (the social news site) for my most recent story, looking at the links between global warming and the Californian fires. Apparently I was doing everything from politicizing the fires, to simply providing incorrect information, aka, sensationalizing the fires. I especially like the idea that an Australian is politicizing the American fires.

Nothing could be further from the truth. The simple fact is that a combination of global warming, and increased El Niño and La Niña events are causing havoc worldwide.

And being an Australian, I’m somewhat of an expert in this. Not to diminish the horror and tragedy of the Californian fires, but in terms of sheer magnitude and relative damage done, Australia has been copping it these past few years.

Just last year, we experienced what are being described as "…some of the worst bushfires in living memory," according to our premier John Brumby.

Wanna know the kicker? Here’s what he added next: "This summer could be worse, with the risk spreading across the state to the fringes of Melbourne."

Melbourne is to Victoria what San Francisco is to California: both a city of its own and a collection of what Americans would call ‘neighborhoods’ (thanks to Dave for helping me with that analogy). So what Brumby is saying is that the fires will likely begin to encroach upon urban centers.

For me personally, that likelihood is pretty high, considering that I only need to drive for 5 minutes before I reach areas ripe for fires.

Global Warming is not a Myth

What, as Donna Moss from The West Wing would say, "really grips my ass" is that people seem to want to be oblivious to what is going on. They hear the words ‘global warming’ and immediately start looking for the ballot box. They seem to misunderstand the implications. Whether global warming is caused by us or not, is not the issue. It simply is happening!

What we are trying to tell you is that the earth is warming, and with it various conditions are changing. As I mentioned, for California — and other areas across the world — the rain/dry equilibrium causes an increase in growth, which then dries out and becomes fuel for massive fires.

There are no questions asked. That is what is happening!

The Little Boy and Girl

El Niño and La Niña are pretty much to blame for a lot of what is happening. Australia has been at the mercy of El Niño conditions, providing us with droughts that are ruining lives across the entire country. But only are farmers being threatened with bankruptcy, but everything is drying out: we’re turning in to a giant tinder box.

To ignore the effects — like so many did for the better part of my lifetime — of El Niño and La Niña is stupidity in itself. And people are realizing that now, after the scientific community finally decided there was overwhelming evidence against them (no, I’m not bitter!). So why is it people are not willing to learn from their isolationist/buried-head syndromes, and see what is actually happening in the world.

No, I was not politicizing the tragedy of the Californian fires. And, no, I do not believe that an Australian life is worth more than an American life. But relatively, Australia has always been affected worse by fires than America has. In sheer terms of relative size and population density, it is a natural occurrence, and one that takes Australian lives with it.

Do I sound scared? I damned sure as hell do! I’m living cycling distance from suburbs that could very well ignite in a few weeks or months. I want people to know that what I’m reporting on, I have a stake in! Global warming is an issue that I’m seeing directly affect those around me. I have friends and family in fire brigades that will be out battling fires across the state, and in one case, across the country.

Whether you want to believe that we’ve had anything to do with global warming is up to you. I honestly couldn’t care less! But the world is getting warmer, and thus creating higher chances for melting polar caps, weird ocean changes and drought. When I say that global warming was the cause behind the severity of the Californian fires, I mean it. Yes, fires have been happening for a while, and would have popped up again, but not to the levels of which they are now!

I’ll halt my rant here. Be thinking of us Aussies as we enter our fifth season: the Bushfire season.

The Age - Fire season is approaching. Be ready

More from GO, ie, Josh’s Digg Beating

California Fires and Climate Change: A Match Made in Hell

Photo Credit - Tim A. Williams

The terrifying part — if we hadn’t already seen it — is the prediction that firestorms (or bushfires) like these could very well become part of the norm for areas like California, according to Ronald Neilson, a professor at Oregon State University and bioclimatologist with the USDA Forest Service.

The catastrophic fires are in line with what climate change models have been predicting for the past several years. Sadly, the predictions also suggest that these fires may just be the beginning to a new way of life.

"This is exactly what we’ve been projecting to happen, both in short-term fire forecasts for this year and the longer term patterns that can be linked to global climate change," said Neilson. Thankfully, for all of us out there who do see the damage, he prefaced his comments by saying that "You can’t look at one event such as this and say with certainty that it was caused by a changing climate…"

"But things just like this are consistent with what the latest modeling shows," Neilson continued, "and may be another piece of evidence that climate change is a reality, one with serious effects."

Many North Americans will be aware of the drought inland, and the increased rainfall along the coast. This is a trend that is mirrored in Africa, and is identified as the biggest global warming threat affecting the earth in a recent report. Coastal regions would find themselves encountering higher rainfalls, whereas inland areas would see an increase in drought-like conditions.

Neilson’s studies add more information to these reports. With increased global warming, the seas are naturally going to be evaporating a little bit quicker. More water will be harvested within the clouds, with only one way to go. These periods of increased rainfall will be followed by periods of drought: a yin and yang of the earth’s climate.

The problem behind the California fires — and the predictions that more will follow — is in the fact that the water will create a boon of vegetation. The increased density of vegetation will, naturally, be the proverbial tinder-box during a drought period. All of that wonderful growth of flora will go up in smoke, creating fires that will increase in intensity through each cycle.

"As the planet warms, more water is getting evaporated from the oceans and all that water has to come down somewhere as precipitation," said Neilson. "That can lead, at times, to heavier vegetation loads popping up and creation of a tremendous fuel load. But the warmth and other climatic forces are also going to create periodic droughts. If you get an ignition source during these periods, the fires can just become explosive."

Current studies show that there is a La Niña event occurring, which is believed to be compounding the Californian fires. When it swings back around in 2 to 4 years, the rain will sweep the coast, and revitalize the regrowth.

Neilson’s research group at Oregon State, in partnership with the Forest Service, have been using models combined to predict weather and fire patterns. Using these models, they accurately predicted the Californian fires, as well as the drought that has recently hit parts of the Southeast, including Georgia and Florida.

Studies that were released 5 years ago by Neilson and other OSU researchers, predicted that the American West could very likely become both wetter and warmer over the following century. These are conditions that, as laid out above, would lead to repeated catastrophic fires. Fires that would be larger than any in recent history, including the current firestorm sweeping the landscape.

The Arctic polar ice is melting, the Southwest of America is burning, and my home country is thirsty. For god’s sake, how is there not more action being taken!

Authors Note - As an aside, I have just written a paralell blog post at my website here, expanding on what I’ve said above. I felt the need to clarify the facts, and I wanted to show people the video I’ll be looking at in my next post.

Science Daily — Massive California Fires Consistent With Climate Change, Experts Say

CNN: California Wildfires Coverage

ENN — Australian farmers face bankruptcy from drought