The UN states that it does not “shy away… from insisting that the advanced countries will have to deliver resources and leadership on a much larger scale than has been the case to date.” This is a bold statement and a humungous lead-in to the Copenhagen climate conference in December.

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Brown cloud near Pune, India

The legendary glaciers of the Himalayan and Hindu Kush mountain ranges have been losing volume at an increasing rate over the past twenty to thirty years. And over this same time period, much data has piled up confirming the role of increased CO2 emissions in global warming trends. Given this, it would be “natural” to assume that CO2-induced warming was also to blame for the glacial melting. But it turns out that much stronger evidence points to the impact of “brown cloud” events.

There have been other extensive brown cloud events elsewhere, such as in Central and Eastern China (which first made headlines back in 2005). They can be several miles wide / long, and extend hundreds of meters or more high. The clouds would be more aptly described as massive, moving blankets of thick haze (similar to smog). They typically last anywhere from a few days to a week before they dissipate. The clouds are indeed lethal to some (asthmatics, elderly, young children, those with bad hearts) and have also been known to suffocate livestock.

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World Fertility Rate Map

The current world population is approximately 6.5 billion people and growing. By or before 2050, that number will grow by almost 50% to 9 billion. With the availability of birth control and better education rates for women being higher in developed (industrial or post-industrial) nations, most of this increase is projected to come from the developing  world–those nations that are just now making significant progress away from exclusively agrarian societies, and towards full industrialization.

And despite the prevalence of fatal diseases, civil wars, and high infant mortality rates (note: the US has the highest infant mortality rate of any developed country), most of these developing countries continue to show population increases–especially as more effective medicines and health education (via government and private sector programs) become available.

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India’s Environment minister has made it clear that his government will not agree to any demands for mandatory emission reduction goals. The minister, in a statement, said what a recent World Bank report had noted, that India could jeopardize its fight against poverty if it agrees to emissions reductions and increase economic burden on its people.

This is not the first time that India has made such statements, India’s climate negotiator Shyam Saran has made similar statements in the past but none have been so direct and for the first time it has been that a statement from the Environment minister has been issued. This ‘aggression’ is due to the fast approaching Copenhagen round of talks for the next climate treaty where developed countries will certainly put pressure on advanced developing countries like India, China, Mexico and others to agree to some kind of emission reduction goals. Adding teeth to India’s argument is the World Bank report.

India has clearly stated its negotiating stance which, most certainly, would include call for developed nations to provide greater monetary help to the developing and poor countries to acquire clean energy technology. India, along with China and Mexico, recently unveiled plans for expanding renewable energy infrastructure, quite possibly to see off any demands for mandatory emission cuts. So if these countries cannot agree to emission reduction targets why not agree to or set voluntary renewable energy targets?

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With eyes on the Copenhagen talks for discussion on the next climate policy, the European Union plans to propose a tax on the carbon emissions of the developed nations, a move which could generate more than $200 billion by 2020. These funds will be used in helping developing and poor nations move from fossils fuels based energy systems to those based on renewable sources.

The European Union proposes that carbon offsetting through the trade of carbon credits under the Clean Development Mechanism be phased out and replaced by a scheme under which the developed nations would commit to cut their carbon emissions but would also pay taxes for extra emissions. The proposal also calls for a similar scheme for the ‘advanced developing nations’ like India and China but fails to clarify its nature.

Carbon offsetting cannot be pursued as a long term solution to mitigate the global carbon emissions and thus the Clean Development Mechanism should be seen only as a transformational step and not the solution to the problem. Replacing carbon offsetting with binding emission reductions seems to be the obvious next step but one has to ask if the world can afford a climate tax at this time of economic meltdown.

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