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I can’t wrap my head around all the pieces yet (and I’m not sure if I’ll ever be able to), but here are some random thoughts about what the market meltdown might mean for oil prices, oil production, renewable energy development and climate change:

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This is a guest submission from John Addison, Publisher of the Clean Fleet Report.

My ninth trip to teach a workshop at Two World Trade Center never happened because of the great tragedy 9/11. On September 11, 2001, thanks to heroes like Avel Villanueva the hundreds of people working for Sun Microsystems in Two World Trade Center all quickly evacuated the building and survived. “Please, with calmness, go to the nearest exit. This is not a drill. Get out.” Only after several pages and inspecting the vast 25th and 26th floors did Avel personally leave. Three minutes later the second plane hit Two World Trade Center.

As our current president reminds us, “We are addicted to oil.” As we continue to spend billions for oil for countries hostile to our way of life, we continue in the words of Thomas Friedman to “finance both sides of the war on terror.” In his new book, Hot, Flat, and Crowded, the Pulitzer Prize winning author shows us how to be free of this addiction.

Americans are not waiting ten years to replace a fraction of our foreign oil with new oil from Alaska. Americans are reducing our oil use now. Confronted with high prices at the pump, U.S. citizens drove 12 billion fewer miles in one month. People are taking advantage of flexwork, public transit, car pooling, sharing rides and sharing vehicles.

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Billions and billions of dollars in potential storm-related losses.

A civil and mechanical engineering professor at Rice University, Nagarajaiah recently analyzed the impacts on offshore drilling of the powerful 2005 hurricanes, Katrina (which made landfall three years ago today) and Rita. The storms, both of which reached maximum Category 5 strength (winds of up to 175 mph) though weakened before landfall, made their presence felt to some 3,000 offshore platforms and 22,000 miles of pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico.

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We already know about the myriad of problems around the world caused by drought, water delivery restrictions and inadequate access to clean water. And we’ve already heard the argument that global warming is to blame for such water shortages. A report recently released by the advocacy group Transparency International provides another reason for the global water crisis: corruption.

In a press release issued by the global coalition against corruption, Chair Huguette Labelle was quoted, “Water is a resource without substitute. It is paramount to our health, our food security, our energy future and our ecosystem. But corruption plagues water management and use in all these areas.”

The organization’s report which was published last month, entitled Global Corruption Report 2008: Corruption in the Water Sector, argues that corruption plagues all segments of the water sectors, from water resources management to drinking water services, irrigation and hydropower. The report’s analysis of corruption in 35 countries from different world regions cites examples, such as bribery in water delivery and procurement-related looting of irrigation and hydropower funds, and focuses on the gravity of the situation and urgent need for reform.

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If such measures are put in place, the U.S. could see as many as one out of every four workers employed by a renewable-energy or energy-efficiency industry by 2030, according to a new report from the American Solar Energy Society (ASES). That’s promising for both U.S. employees and for anyone concerned about reducing greenhouse gas emissions and our dependence on fossil fuels. But it will happen only, as the ASES report says, under “an aggressive deployment forecast scenario.”

That means we, as citizens and consumers, are going to have to apply strong and steady pressure on legislators — local, state and national — to do the right thing. And that, we all know, isn’t easy.

Still, if — as the saying goes — money walks, green-collar types might see Beltway support grow as green industries expand their economic muscle, which means more dollars for lobbying and campaign financing. And, in that regard, the future looks bright.

In the U.S., renewable-energy and energy-efficiency industries are already generating 8.5 million jobs and nearly $970 billion in annual revenues, according to the ASES report. “To put this in perspective,” the report states, “(t)otal sales for Wal-Mart, Exxon-Mobil and General Motors in 2006 were $905 billion.”

While companies on the energy-efficiency side — things like better windows, efficient appliances and insulation — are making more of the money right now, the renewables side is growing more rapidly.

The ASES predicts the hottest, fastest-growing industries will involve solar power, wind energy, ethanol and fuel-cell technologies. With the right level of public support, it says, we could see up to 40 million people employed — as everything from accountants and biochemists to engineers, mechanics and truck drivers — in the renewable-energy and energy-efficiency sectors by 2030, with annual green-industry revenues of $4.5 trillion.

Getting there, though, will require much more than a business-as-usual approach, the ASES report warns.

“This scenario requires appropriate, aggressive, sustained public policies at the federal and state level during next two decades,” it states. Getting decision-makers to come on board might take oil shortages, fossil-fuel price increases, growing security concerns or a greater awareness of the impact of climate change. The fear of suffering economically at a global level might also be a motivator.

“If we fail to invest in (renewable energy and energy efficiency), the United States runs the risk of losing ground to international … programs and industries,” the report concludes. “For the United States to be competitive in a carbon-constrained world, the (renewable energy and energy efficiency) industry will be a critical economic driver.”

"Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future," a report released by the InterAcademy Council (a global association of national science academies) this week, points out that access to basic energy services can help halve extreme poverty, reduce hunger, improve access to potable drinking water and enable basic health and education services that can help poor people become self-sustainable.

"In brief, substantial inequalities in access to energy services now exist, not only between countries but between populations within the same country and even between households within the same town or village," the report stated. "In many developing countries, a small elite uses energy in much the same way as in the industrialized world, while most of the rest of the population relies on traditional, often poor-quality and highly polluting forms of energy."

Basic energy services as a solution to poverty makes sense when you consider the numbers: 1.6 billion of the world’s 6.6 billion people — almost one out of every four people — live without access to electricity. And a total of 2.4 billion — about 36 percent of the world’s population — relies on fuels like dung, charcoal, firewood and crop waste to cook their daily meals.

Compared to the benefits that would come from providing basic energy to the world’s poor, the overall global energy investment wouldn’t be overwhelming, according to the InterAcademy Council.

"Extending basic energy services to the billions of people who now lack access to electricity and clean cooking fuels, for example, could be accomplished in ways that would have only minimal impact on current levels of petroleum consumption and carbon dioxide emissions," the council’s report said. "Indeed, closer examination of the relationship between energy consumption and human well-being suggests that a more equitable distribution of access to energy services is entirely compatible with accelerated progress toward addressing energy-security and climate-change risks."

It sounds like a daunting task, but the InterAcademy Council report expressed hope that it could be done … if governments, businesses, NGOs, researchers and the media can all come onto the same page and work together to attack the problem.

"Aggressive changes in policy are… needed to accelerate the deployment of superior technologies," the report stated. "With a combination of such policies at the local, national and international level, it should be possible — both technically and economically — to elevate the living conditions of most of humanity, while simultaneously addressing the risks posed by climate change and other forms of energy-related environmental degradation and reducing the geopolitical tensions and economic vulnerabilities generated by existing patterns of dependence on predominantly fossil-fuel resources."

The biggest challenge, it seems, will be to make the possible probable.

Ironically, on the same day, the InterAcademy Council announced a new report titled, “Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future.” While that report didn’t include the peak oil news, it did emphasize that the world needs to start moving now to ensure both a dependable energy future and a climate that doesn’t tip dangerously into overdrive.

And here’s where the conundrum comes in: coal, the InterAcademy Council report acknowledged, is the most abundant fossil fuel we’ve got … but also the most potentially damaging. Coal-fired power plants, which are springing up in growing numbers around the globe, could help provide the energy safety net we need if the peak-oil analysis is true. But the emissions from coal-burning plants would only speed up today’s rising greenhouse gas levels.

So what’s the solution? Do we throw everything we’ve got at developing safe and cost-effective ways to capture and store the carbon from coal plants? Or do we “Just say no” to coal and invest like mad in renewables research and development? We need an answer in the near future apparently, but which will it be?