700 people stripped naked in French vineyards this week. Why? To try to influence world leaders to do more regarding climate change.

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In his first UN appearance since taking the Oval Office, Obama staked a lofty position for the US, promised that the US is “determined to act,” and that the US “will meet our responsibility to future generations.” Chinese President Hu Jintao matched Obama’s rhetoric, pledging that the Chinese would commit to a host of progressive steps around renewable energy and emissions reductions, but also cautioning that developing economies like China’s “should not … be asked to take on obligations that go beyond their development stage.”

The summer saw a lot of pre-positioning in advance of Copenhagen, and with today’s UN General Assembly marking the beginning of a series of mini-summits in the lead-up to December’s big climate change conference, the volume on those announcements will only increase along with their frequency and grandeur.

Still, with Obama facing an uphill battle on domestic climate change legislation and China hiding behind their “developing” status, Copenhagen is threatening to become little more than a public relations event with little real concerted action. The US will have to avoid making the push for global leadership on climate change into a new breed of arms race that would find Obama and US policymakers at a significant disadvantage against the Chinese in the following ways:

Paying Lip Service is Costly – China, India and other developing countries want the US-led West to subsidize their carbon reduction efforts. If the West balks and no comprehensive global agreement emerges, the US could still find itself saddled with costly commitments made in going toe-to-toe with China as a demonstration of leadership and willingness to cooperate. For example, at the UN, President Jintao made the headline-grabbing promise to plant enough new trees in China to cover the area of Norway. Jintao also promised to get China to 15% renewable energy within 10 years, a much more ambitious timeline than any US plan. While it may not represent the kind of economy-crippling commitment that China fears will result from a global agreement, these programs will be costly, and Obama has his hands full just trying to pay for health care.

Democracy’s Dilemma - Not only is Obama hamstrung by health care, an increasingly troublesome war in Afghanistan, and an economy that is still teetering; but, he also has the mettlesome matters of bipartisanship, political pressure and budget restraints. While a strongly Democratic House could barely pass a weakened climate bill, Jintao and the Chinese have a one-party system overseeing a command economy that gives the Chinese a lot more adaptability as circumstances dictate in Copenhagen, in the world press, and on the geopolitical landscape.

The World Won’t Grade on a Curve - The Chinese are already crying foul over efforts to stifle their economy for the sake of climate change action and the world community is not expecting much from the world’s fastest growing economy and most voluminous emitter. Commitments like those above are enough to make a splash and convince the world that China really is trying. By contrast, Senators from Obama’s own party are refusing to discuss the prospect of domestic climate change legislation unless it includes trade protections. That kind of opposition in his own party makes a lot of his words ring hollow while the Chinese will certainly be able to deliver on whatever proposals they float. There are no handicaps in this game, so even if they overshoot on a much lower standard, the Chinese promise to steal Obama’s thunder.

Conventional wisdom says you should never enter a land war in Asia. The same might be said for wars of words.

Flickr photo.

The man in question is Daniel Andreas San Diego who’s 31 years old and describes himself as an animal rights extremist. The crime that got him onto the list is the planting of nail bombs in San Francisco in 2003. It’s alleged that San Diego was involved in the campaign that targeted researchers involved in animal testing.

San Diego also has links to SHAC: Stop Huntingdon Animal Cruelty, and in January, in the UK, lengthy prison sentences were given to seven members of the organisation after an investigation over several years by Kent police.

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One of the biggest stories in the UK at present is the relationship between democracy and the police – or as it has been expressed several times by Nick Hardwick, chairman of the Independent Police Complaints Commission - the police needed to remember that they were “servants, not masters” of the public.

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Following the G20 media-fest last week, several protestors commented on British national radio on the nature of media attention. They pointed out that the violent protests against the G20 had obtained massive international coverage, but that peaceful protests on the same subject got only local attention or no awareness at all.

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The G20 will meet next week in London, and while police are bracing for clamoring anti-globalization and climate change protests, organizers say all the planned events will be peaceful.

While the failures of the banking system will take the forefront (get used to hearing the phrase “Bankers are wankers”), organizers have also planned protests to the G20’s response to climate change.

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First, this meeting will provide the US and China a chance to meet behind the scenes, for the first time since Hillary Clinton visited China last month to initiate a discussion on robust bilateral coordination on energy and climate issues. Both Clinton and her Chinese counterparts suggested in February that the G20 meeting would give the two nations’ leaders a chance to move ahead with the compact. The next step may well be a US-China leader summit, which a recent policy think tank “roadmap” for collaboration, given to Clinton in advance of her trip, identified as a crucial building block in the process.

Secondly, this meeting will give other countries some signposts as to what they can expect from China in December. G20 participants have already expressed their expectation that China will ante up in this time of global economic need. Gauging the tone of China’s reaction to G20 participants’ financial demands will provide participating OECD countries – particularly those expecting China to make serious commitments on emissions reductions in the “Green New Deal” – some hint as to what a distressed China can be expected to deliver in environmental negotiation terms. The last two weeks’ NPC legislative session in Beijing definitively demonstrated that China’s first priority is repairing the economy, not the environment. Thus, China’s reaction to the key role G20 participants expect her to play in the summit may serve as an accurate litmus test for anticipated outcomes in Copenhagen.

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President-elect Barack Obama did not send representatives to the APEC Global Climate Summit but he recorded this message promising “a new chapter of American leadership on climate change.”

Leaders, wearing traditional Peruvian ponchos, wave during the official group photo of 16th summit of the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation, APEC, in Lima, Sunday, Nov. 23, 2008.

The 21 economies of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), which represent more than half of the world’s productive power, assured the world yesterday (Sunday) at the end of a 2-day summit in Lima, that the global financial crisis can be quelled in 18 months.  But how they expect this to happen - or how their governments can help remains to be seen.

The 18-month time-line fits with a calculation by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which forecast that developed economies would grow barely 0.1 percent in 2009, and that the world would emerge from the crisis the following year.

APEC, which groups some of the most open economies in the world, warned that countries should not be tempted to use protectionist measures even if job losses mount. APEC members pledged to work together to ease the turmoil, agreed not to adopt new trade barriers for a year and called for better regulation of the financial industry. Their declaration at the end of a two-day summit in Peru supported a declaration by the Group of 20 (G20) major economies at a meeting in Washington last weekend that pledged to maintain free trade despite pressures to protect domestic industries. They are looking at stimulus plans that include boosting government spending and cutting taxes.

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The World’s population is estimated at 6.7 billion:

• of this, 15% live in slums and are permanently hungry
• yet the USA, the EU, the UK, Russia, China, India and Brazil have all reported bumper harvests this year

The World’s GDP is estimated at $55.5tr per annum:

• of this 85% is consumed by 20% of the population
• while 45% of the population live on around $900 per annum
  
• and 0.0001% of the population have a combined wealth of over $10tr

In the USA, in the ten years to 2006:

• employment stayed at around 72%
• while average earnings rose 45% from $37,000 to $54,000
• and the average real income of the poorest 20% of households fell

In other words, the global economy is fixed in a spiral where prosperity is hoarded by those who already have and isn’t shared with those who already have not. Social mobility is non-existent.

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