Move over CO2—you’ve been ousted, along with methane, as the biggest offenders of global climate change. According to a new a study by Purdue University and NASA, the major chemicals most frequently cited as leading to climate change, namely carbon dioxide and methane, are actually outclassed in their warming potential by compounds receiving less attention. The majority of “greenhouse gases” are created by humans.

The results were discovered when researchers studied more than a dozen chemicals, or greenhouse gases as classified by their warming properties defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. From there, the team developed a blueprint for the underlying molecular machinery of global warming. The results appeared in the November 12, 2009 issue of the American Chemical Society’s Journal of Physical Chemistry, just in time for the convergence of world leaders in Copenhagen.

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In his first UN appearance since taking the Oval Office, Obama staked a lofty position for the US, promised that the US is “determined to act,” and that the US “will meet our responsibility to future generations.” Chinese President Hu Jintao matched Obama’s rhetoric, pledging that the Chinese would commit to a host of progressive steps around renewable energy and emissions reductions, but also cautioning that developing economies like China’s “should not … be asked to take on obligations that go beyond their development stage.”

The summer saw a lot of pre-positioning in advance of Copenhagen, and with today’s UN General Assembly marking the beginning of a series of mini-summits in the lead-up to December’s big climate change conference, the volume on those announcements will only increase along with their frequency and grandeur.

Still, with Obama facing an uphill battle on domestic climate change legislation and China hiding behind their “developing” status, Copenhagen is threatening to become little more than a public relations event with little real concerted action. The US will have to avoid making the push for global leadership on climate change into a new breed of arms race that would find Obama and US policymakers at a significant disadvantage against the Chinese in the following ways:

Paying Lip Service is Costly – China, India and other developing countries want the US-led West to subsidize their carbon reduction efforts. If the West balks and no comprehensive global agreement emerges, the US could still find itself saddled with costly commitments made in going toe-to-toe with China as a demonstration of leadership and willingness to cooperate. For example, at the UN, President Jintao made the headline-grabbing promise to plant enough new trees in China to cover the area of Norway. Jintao also promised to get China to 15% renewable energy within 10 years, a much more ambitious timeline than any US plan. While it may not represent the kind of economy-crippling commitment that China fears will result from a global agreement, these programs will be costly, and Obama has his hands full just trying to pay for health care.

Democracy’s Dilemma - Not only is Obama hamstrung by health care, an increasingly troublesome war in Afghanistan, and an economy that is still teetering; but, he also has the mettlesome matters of bipartisanship, political pressure and budget restraints. While a strongly Democratic House could barely pass a weakened climate bill, Jintao and the Chinese have a one-party system overseeing a command economy that gives the Chinese a lot more adaptability as circumstances dictate in Copenhagen, in the world press, and on the geopolitical landscape.

The World Won’t Grade on a Curve - The Chinese are already crying foul over efforts to stifle their economy for the sake of climate change action and the world community is not expecting much from the world’s fastest growing economy and most voluminous emitter. Commitments like those above are enough to make a splash and convince the world that China really is trying. By contrast, Senators from Obama’s own party are refusing to discuss the prospect of domestic climate change legislation unless it includes trade protections. That kind of opposition in his own party makes a lot of his words ring hollow while the Chinese will certainly be able to deliver on whatever proposals they float. There are no handicaps in this game, so even if they overshoot on a much lower standard, the Chinese promise to steal Obama’s thunder.

Conventional wisdom says you should never enter a land war in Asia. The same might be said for wars of words.

Flickr photo.

The conductor walks on to the stage and mounts the podium with applause from the crowd.  He bows to the audience, then turns to his orchestra and, with one fluid motion pulls music from the vast expanse of silence. Each musician moves, almost mechanically, in perfect time, in perfect concert. The violin section becomes one great body, no longer individual musicians. Together, as one, the orchestra ebbs and flows in crescendo and decrescendo. Melody. Harmony. Symphony.

But imagine with me for a moment that one violinist fell out of rhythm. The once fluid sound drips through the cracks of disarray. From there, another violinist. Next a cellist. Soon the entire string section has lost rhythm. The conductor struggles to pull the string section into concert with the rest of the orchestra. However, the chaos of the string section has spread to the brass and to the woodwind sections. Soon the entire orchestra is in conflict.

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Plans were announced today that will bring the United States and China together in order to fight the issue of global climate change. Energy Secretary Steven Chu, Chinese Minister of Science Wan Gang, and Administrator of National Energy Administration Zhang Guo Bao announced plans to develop a U.S.-China Clean Energy Research Center, which will facilitate cooperative research and development of clean energy systems.

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Permafrost, or permanently frozen ground - soil, sediment or rock that remains at or below 0° Celsius for at least two continuous years - makes up about 24 percent of the exposed land mass in the Northern Hemisphere: that’s approximately 22.79 million square kilometers. Permafrost can be thousands of years old, or it can be just beginning. Either way, as permafrost thaws, it jeopardizes both man-made structures and natural features. Thawing permafrost on mountain slopes can lead to landslides.

And it’s melting.

Besides posing threats to structures and landscapes on a local scale, melting permafrost emits carbon dioxide and methane, according to the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), making permafrost a threat on a global scale.

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June 29, 2009 - For the first time, the World Trade Organization (WTO) teamed up with the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) to release a report outlining the relationship between trade and climate change. The report describes the multitude of ways in which climate change and trade intersect.

Using current scientific knowledge as well as current literature and a survey of national policies, the two organizations worked together to create a report that summarizes concerns regarding existing and projected climate change, impacts of climate change, and on possible responses, through adaptation and mitigation, to the challenges posed by climate change.

The report states that climate change is “unequivocal.” The evidence, gathered through a review of thousands of scientific publications, is compelling, and describes that human activities are “very likely” the cause of such global warming.

The biggest concern that the report denotes is that; barring major changes in policy, law, action, and attitude, global greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase over the coming decades, with emissions increasing anywhere from 25 to 90 percent by 2030. It is also anticipated that a greater proportion of greenhouse gases will be emitted from developing countries.

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I recently wrote a post concerning a report on climate change issued by the U.S. Government stating that “climate change has immediate and local impacts – it literally affects people in their backyards.” Well, as it turns out, there’s more to the story.

With the recent introduction of H.R. 2454 - the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 - there has been an increased push for climate change awareness. The purpose of the bill is to create clean energy jobs, achieve energy independence, reduce global warming pollution and transition to a clean energy economy.

This all sounds great, right? Well, not to everyone seems to agree. Not everyone believes in climate change. With such a debate raging, it may be difficult to see through the haze of words and opinions that is filling the air.

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It’s in the papers and on TV. It spreads across the Internet (including this very post), and it is finding its way into the classroom. Global climate change is nothing new. And it certainly isn’t going away. Not yet, anyway.

A report, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States,” was put out on June 16, 2009. The report compiles years of scientific research and takes into account new data not available during the preparation of previous assessments. It was produced by a consortium of experts from 13 U.S. government science agencies and from several major universities and research institutes.

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For more in depth information about Earth Hour 2009, visit Wenona’s post from February or the Earth Hour US website.

What can you do when the lights are out?

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“Satellite images gathered by NASA show that the north-west passage opened last weekend and the final blockage on the east side of the ice cap, an area of sea ice stretching to Siberia, dissolved a few days later.”

Whether or not you subscribe to the concept of global climate change due to human factors, there is no dispute that, for the first time in recorded human history, the North Pole is an island, with unobstructed sea between the Pole and both Canada and Russia.

“Measurements on August 26 showed an ice cap of just over two million square miles, confirming the second biggest ice cap melt since records began.”

via: Telegraph.co.uk and Aftenposten.no

image via: Telegraph.co.uk
Some Key Findings of the report are:

1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced. Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. (p. 13)

2. Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow. Climate-related changes are already observed in the United States and its coastal waters. These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons, lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt, and alterations in river flows. These changes are projected to grow. (p. 27)

3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. (p. 41-106, 107-152)

4. Climate change will stress water resources. Water is an issue in every region, but the nature of the potential impacts varies. Drought, related to reduced precipitation, increased evaporation, and increased water loss from plants, is an important issue in many regions, especially in the West. Floods and water quality problems are likely to be amplified by climate change in most regions. Declines in mountain snowpack are important in the West and Alaska where snowpack provides vital natural water storage. (p. 41, 129, 135, 139)

5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. (p. 71)

6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge. Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk of erosion and flooding, especially along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, Pacific Islands, and parts of Alaska. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. (p. 111, 139, 145, 149)

7. Threats to human health will increase. Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. (p. 89)

8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses. Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. (p. 99)

9. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. There are a variety of thresholds in the climate system and ecosystems. These thresholds determine, for example, the presence of sea ice and permafrost, and the survival of species, from fish to insect pests, with implications for society. With further climate change, the crossing of additional thresholds is expected. (p. 76, 82, 115, 137, 142)

10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today. The amount and rate of future climate change depend primarily on current and future human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases and airborne particles. Responses involve reducing emissions to limit future warming, and adapting to the changes that are unavoidable. (p. 25, 29)

Watch Video Coverage of the presentation of the report on youtube.

Photo Credit: bbum via flickr under Creative Commons License

Photo 2 Credit: Dimit®i via flickr under Creative Commons License

This is an image of Wind Water for Life program, helping to revitalize abanonded wind turbines for water pumps in Senegal to serve over 50 communities, improving water supply and quality to almost 30,000 people. This and projects like it throughout the developing countries of the world, are supported in part by E+Co, a non-profit organization dedicated to empowering local groups to create safe, clean energy sources for their communities.

I’ve had the joy of meeting the powerhouse founder and CEO of E+Co, Phil LaRocco. Formerly Director of World Trade and Economic Development for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, where he oversaw the NY World Trade Center and a network of international offices, Mr. LaRocco has used his background to pioneer an enterprise-centered model for clean energy implementation. He has made over ninety investments in energy enterprises in over thirty developing countries.

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As Albert Einstein said, “Nothing will benefit human health and increase chances of survival for life on earth as much as the evolution to a vegetarian diet.”

The big issue today is global climate change. It is likely to dwarf any environmental issues we faced in the past. As reported by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization:

[T]he livestock sector is a major stressor on many ecosystems and on the planet as a whole. Globally it is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gases…. It currently amounts to about 18 percent of the global warming effect — an even larger contribution than the transportation sector worldwide.

This is a critical issue. This is more critical than our power plants, our industries, the energy efficiency of our homes and appliances, or even transportation.

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