Green Options

File Photo: Hillary Clinton and the Indian Environment Minister in New Delhi

..and then takes a U-Turn the very next day!

In a reported letter to the Prime Minister of India, Mr. Jairam Ramesh, the Indian Environment Minister proposed a radical shift in India’s stand on climate change–away from its national position on climate negotiations–which India has backed since 1990 and which was defended robustly even in UN talks in Bangkok earlier this month.

Minutes after the news spread, political parties sitting in the opposition were quick to respond. Within the next few hours, the Environment Minister issued a clarifying statement for national media and the entire Nation!

Brazil and China have been in talks with the United States about increasing cooperation in expanding clean energy technologies, and possibly reducing their carbon emissions. It seems that the developing countries are finding it difficult to maintain their stance of no emission reduction targets.

The question of possible repurposing of civil nuclear technology has been a talking point in US policy on Iran, and that question specifically has been a bone of contention in the triangular posturing between the US, Iran and Russia.

India is possibly looking to dodge the issue of mandatory emission reductions by announcing a variety of green schemes.

A deal between the US and China would raise the chances of a successful negotiation of a new international climate treaty at Copenhagen.

We know a bit about the current situation on climate change. We know which countries are emitting the most global warming emissions. We know that the EU is actively implementing policies to get their emissions down and are serious about keeping climate change at the top of the priority list, even in one of the biggest economic struggles in history. We know that little nations like Tuvalu are working to address climate change. We know that ambitious and engaged countries are running into unseen problems and are unsure where to go in the future. We know that the US is looking to pass a climate bill for the first time and could change history in the process, and the USDA supports it but climate change groups, consumer advocate groups, and social equity groups are quite concerned about some of the changes made by the House of Representatives at the last minute. We know that China, India, and Brazil’s growth in greenhouse gas emissions have skyrocketed (several times faster than developed countries’ still growing emissions) in the past two decades.

India seems to be eying an international funding scheme, which assists developing & poor countries adopt clean energy systems, as it continues to resist mandatory emission reduction targets.

The G20 Global Summit, which will take place in the UK in April, stands to be an important factor in determining China’s stance on climate change commitments as Copenhagen draws near.

First, this meeting will provide the US and China a chance to meet behind the scenes, for the first time since Hillary Clinton visited China last month to initiate a discussion on robust bilateral coordination on energy and climate issues. Both Clinton and her Chinese counterparts suggested in February that the G20 meeting would give the two nations’ leaders a chance to move ahead with the compact. The next step may well be a US-China leader summit, which a recent policy think tank “roadmap” for collaboration, given to Clinton in advance of her trip, identified as a crucial building block in the process.

Secondly, this meeting will give other countries some signposts as to what they can expect from China in December. G20 participants have already expressed their expectation that China will ante up in this time of global economic need. Gauging the tone of China’s reaction to G20 participants’ financial demands will provide participating OECD countries – particularly those expecting China to make serious commitments on emissions reductions in the “Green New Deal” – some hint as to what a distressed China can be expected to deliver in environmental negotiation terms. The last two weeks’ NPC legislative session in Beijing definitively demonstrated that China’s first priority is repairing the economy, not the environment. Thus, China’s reaction to the key role G20 participants expect her to play in the summit may serve as an accurate litmus test for anticipated outcomes in Copenhagen.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a group of young Europeans at the European Parliament in Brussels today that the global economic downturn provided a fresh new opportunity.

Hopefully the US economy will be strengthened from the increased government spending included in the Economic Stimulus Bill, but it is important to look beyond our borders whenever debt is incurred. China is the largest holder of U.S. government debt and actually needs it for investing Chinese surpluses. China has nothing else to invest in, as few other countries have debt markets large enough.

Certain pairs just seem to go together: peas and carrots; peanut butter and jelly; and teenagers and cell phones. Clinton and China is another magical combination: at least, that has been the case for Bill Clinton.

Throughout his presidency, a time in which China entered the WTO, and subsequent philanthropic involvement in China, Clinton has enjoyed a popularity that, by my completely unscientific measure, exceeds just about any other American or American leader since Nixon.

This may explain, in part, how Hillary earned a favorable reputation in China a while back. I have encountered countless cabbies whose thumbs up for “xi-la-li” (Hillary) came after their thumbs up for “ke-lun-dun” (Bill Clinton). [Full disclosure: not directly after; that spot is usually reserved for "Le-wen-si-ji", another American who enjoys tongue-in-cheek popularity in China.] At the beginning of the primaries, it seemed that China might be pulling for a Clinton victory; but warm feelings turned sour when Clinton’s stance on China became increasingly critical.

We will soon find out how China will receive Clinton in her new position as Secretary of State, since she has just announced her first trip to Asia, with China scheduled to be a critical stopoff. What’s more, Clinton aides have identified energy and climate change as two issues that will be at the top of her agenda.