Green Options

By Lester R. Brown

Today we are an oil-based civilization, one that is totally dependent on a resource whose production will soon be falling. Since 1981, the quantity of oil extracted has exceeded new discoveries by an ever-widening margin. In 2008, the world pumped 31 billion barrels of oil but discovered fewer than 9 billion barrels of new oil. World reserves of conventional oil are in a free fall, dropping every year.

As I note in my latest book, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, discoveries of conventional oil total roughly 2 trillion barrels, of which 1 trillion have been extracted so far, with another trillion barrels to go. By themselves, however, these numbers miss a central point. As security analyst Michael Klare notes, the first trillion barrels was easy oil, “oil that’s found on shore or near to shore; oil close to the surface and concentrated in large reservoirs; oil produced in friendly, safe, and welcoming places.” The other half, Klare notes, is tough oil, “oil that’s buried far offshore or deep underground; oil scattered in small, hard-to-find reservoirs; oil that must be obtained from unfriendly, politically dangerous, or hazardous places.”

This prospect of peaking oil production has direct consequences for world food security, as modern agriculture depends heavily on the use of fossil fuels. Most tractors use gasoline or diesel fuel. Irrigation pumps use diesel fuel, natural gas, or coal-fired electricity. Fertilizer production is also energy-intensive. Natural gas is used to synthesize the basic ammonia building block in nitrogen fertilizers. The mining, manufacture, and international transport of phosphates and potash all depend on oil.

A director of the Shell Petroleum Company in Nigeria revealed at a conference that oil theft is costing the company and the country tremendously.

“Even with low oil prices, the (Nigerian) government loses between $1 billion and $1.5 billion every year to crude theft,” Mutiu Sunmonu said at the Abuja conference. Nigeria is one of the top producing oil nations in the world with hundreds of miles of oil pipes used for transporting crude.

When it comes to the production of crude oil, America does takes the bronze. But it’s a slighted accomplishment, considering that the top oil producers - both Russia and Saudi Arabia - out produce the U.S. by a factor of 2 to 1. In reality, the U.S. only contributes to about 10-percent of the world’s oil supply.

If you haven’t heard yet, peak oil is here: the Energy Watch Group released an analysis this week indicating that global oil production peaked last year and is now likely to start dropping by several percent annually.

Ironically, on the same day, the InterAcademy Council announced a new report titled, "Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future." While that report didn’t include the peak oil news,

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