Today we are an oil-based civilization, one that is totally dependent on a resource whose production will soon be falling. Since 1981, the quantity of oil extracted has exceeded new discoveries by an ever-widening margin. In 2008, the world pumped 31 billion barrels of oil but discovered fewer than 9 billion barrels of new oil. World reserves of conventional oil are in a free fall, dropping every year.

As I note in my latest book, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, discoveries of conventional oil total roughly 2 trillion barrels, of which 1 trillion have been extracted so far, with another trillion barrels to go. By themselves, however, these numbers miss a central point. As security analyst Michael Klare notes, the first trillion barrels was easy oil, “oil that’s found on shore or near to shore; oil close to the surface and concentrated in large reservoirs; oil produced in friendly, safe, and welcoming places.” The other half, Klare notes, is tough oil, “oil that’s buried far offshore or deep underground; oil scattered in small, hard-to-find reservoirs; oil that must be obtained from unfriendly, politically dangerous, or hazardous places.”

This prospect of peaking oil production has direct consequences for world food security, as modern agriculture depends heavily on the use of fossil fuels. Most tractors use gasoline or diesel fuel. Irrigation pumps use diesel fuel, natural gas, or coal-fired electricity. Fertilizer production is also energy-intensive. Natural gas is used to synthesize the basic ammonia building block in nitrogen fertilizers. The mining, manufacture, and international transport of phosphates and potash all depend on oil.

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A director of the Shell Petroleum Company in Nigeria revealed at a conference that oil theft is costing the company and the country tremendously.

“Even with low oil prices, the (Nigerian) government loses between $1 billion and $1.5 billion every year to crude theft,” Mutiu Sunmonu said at the Abuja conference. Nigeria is one of the top producing oil nations in the world with hundreds of miles of oil pipes used for transporting crude.

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Yes, it will dazzle you - no, it will bedazzle you - with its awesomeness! It’s fast acting, 3-times concentrated and cheaper than the leading brand. It reduces the price of gasoline to mere pennies, and it’s 100% effective in the fight against plaque and Global Warming. But that’s not all folks. No more starving babies in Africa - especially the cute ones.  And it doesn’t stop there - it gives you longer and more satisfying sex, whether you’re having it with someone else or not. It’s that good!

SPOILER ALERT: No. It’s. Not.

Thar’s Black Gold in Them Thar Hills: Actually, not so much. When it comes to the production of crude oil, America does takes the bronze. But it’s a slighted accomplishment, considering that the top oil producers - both Russia and Saudi Arabia - out produce the U.S. by a factor of 2 to 1. In reality, the U.S. only contributes to about 10-percent of the world’s oil supply.

Confessions of a Consumer Whore: Though, we are the heavy weight champions when it comes to consumption. We use over 25-percent of the world’s oil, of which more than half of that is imported. That’s twenty-five freakin percent! Wow, we’re almost kinda special.

It’s the Economy, Stupid: We consume 20.7 million barrels of oil a day, but only 40-percent of that is home grown.  Considering we only own 3-percent of the world’s oil reserves, offshore contributions would barely be significant. And even if they were, the price of oil is still set by a global market. Therefore no employee discount, we’re still stuck with high prices.

Danger, Will Robinson: Even if we could Dumbledore our way into having offshore crude oil today, it still doesn’t address our biggest fossil-fuel-foul, global warming. It just postpones it.

We are making progress. SUVs are going the way of the Dodo bird; alternative fuel vehicles are becoming more and more prevalent. Heck, even my mom uses reusable bags now. But here’s the half-empty: offshore drilling is not a solution, it’s not even a quick fix - it’s a mistake, plain and simple. The only thing it has to offer is false hope and more environmental damage.

Related Posts:

Offshore Drilling Ban Opens Discussion for Other Domestic Oil Options
Poll: Americans Don’t Think More Drilling Will Lower Gas Prices
Offshore Drilling, Why It May Not Happen, Even if Approved by Congress

Image source: Tank Theory at zenviroments.com

Ironically, on the same day, the InterAcademy Council announced a new report titled, “Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future.” While that report didn’t include the peak oil news, it did emphasize that the world needs to start moving now to ensure both a dependable energy future and a climate that doesn’t tip dangerously into overdrive.

And here’s where the conundrum comes in: coal, the InterAcademy Council report acknowledged, is the most abundant fossil fuel we’ve got … but also the most potentially damaging. Coal-fired power plants, which are springing up in growing numbers around the globe, could help provide the energy safety net we need if the peak-oil analysis is true. But the emissions from coal-burning plants would only speed up today’s rising greenhouse gas levels.

So what’s the solution? Do we throw everything we’ve got at developing safe and cost-effective ways to capture and store the carbon from coal plants? Or do we “Just say no” to coal and invest like mad in renewables research and development? We need an answer in the near future apparently, but which will it be?