Apparently, the cola wars spilled over into the green tech sector a few years ago. Coca Cola has placed vending machines that use hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) alternatives at the Olympic Games since 2004 as well as at several other international events. Not to be outdone, along with the machines Pepsi is testing in the nation’s capital, they are testing a few thousand other machines around the world that use other green refrigerant alternatives to HFCs. Moreover, the older models these green machines are set to replace are themselves improvements over models from 2003. Both companies have also joined with Greenpeace and several other corporations to form the Refrigerants, Naturally! coalition, a group determined to reduce the environmental impact of HFC refrigerants.

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As the date for the 2008 Games rapidly approaches, Beijing struggles to improve air quality for the “green games.” By closing factories, limiting vehicle use, and halting all construction projects, Chinese authorities are trying to make last-minute improvements that rely on wide-spread compliance. Athletic performance, health, and China’s reputation could suffer if the smog doesn’t clear.

China has implemented a variety of emergency measures to tame the haze, which will have a significant impact on all levels of society. Personal vehicle use is limited from July 20 to September 20. Drivers in Beijing can only drive on alternating days and high emissions vehicles are banned completely. Meanwhile, mass transit is being expanded and work hours staggered to help ease transportation woes.

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However, in recent months, Senator Obama has also expressed some mixed feelings about boycotting the Olympics.

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Researchers at the University of California worked with the data and calculated that China’s emissions by 2010 will equate to at least 600 million metric tons greater than the countries was in 2000. Note the ‘at least’ in there, because according to the majority of the computer models, their emissions will actually be twice that figure.

Even hoping for the best possible scenario, the smallest figure calculated is five times as large as the 115.90 million metric tons in reductions that the US Energy Information Agency estimates will have been achieved by the Kyoto protocol members.

“The emissions growth rate is surpassing our worst expectations, and that means the goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 is going to be much, much harder to achieve,” says Maximillian Auffhammer of the University of California, Berkeley.

Prior to now, estimates have been focusing only on national data of pollution. However Auffhammer, and Richard Carson from the University of California, San Diego, used national data on pollution produced by Chinese provinces. The increased detail in the data has allowed them to make a more precise and horrifying calculation.

China, a country that is deemed a developing country under the United Nations, is thus not required to reduce its emissions under the Kyoto protocol. Of course it can agree too, and in the wake of the upcoming Olympic Games there has been some move to do so, but as of yet they have set no firm targets. As such, the UoC pair estimate that CO₂ emissions will rise by 11% per year over the next two years. Previous estimates ranged between 2.5% and 5%.

This most recent finding concerning China’s emissions comes only days after the world’s marathon record holder, Haile Gebrselassie of Ethiopia, declared he was an unlikely entrant in the 2008 Olympic marathon. “The pollution in China is a threat to my health and it would be difficult for me to run 42 kilometres in my current condition,” says Gebrselassie.

And while this only forced the Chinese government to reiterate that they pledge to have clean air for the summer games, it brings to mind a question: what are the Chinese sacrificing so that Games’ venues are clean?

New Scientist - China emissions to swamp Kyoto reductions by 2010

Photo Courtesy of fortes via Flickr