Speaking in a telephone briefing last Friday, Jennifer Francis, an atmospheric scientist at Rutgers University in New Jersey, said that the Arctic and Antarctic are exhibiting opposite effects to the climate change affecting our planet.

It has been well documented that the North Pole is suffering from melting ice; however down south, in Antarctica, the climate change is powering winds that lower the temperature. “All the evidence points toward human-made effects playing a major role in the changes that we see at both poles and evidence that contradicts this is very hard to find,” said Francis.

To be published in the May 6^th edition of the journal Eos, Francis and her co-authors conducted an examination of many previous studies about polar climate, and concluded that it “further depletes the arsenal of those who insist that human-caused climate change is nothing to worry about.”

The Arctic

The paper rightfully combines man-made global warming with natural variation, to explain what is happening in the north. They describe the conditions as a “perfect Arctic storm,” referring to human-generated carbon dioxide emissions and natural climate variations.

“Natural climate variability and global warming were actually working together and they’ve sent the Arctic into a new state for the climate that has much less sea ice,” said James Overland, an oceanographer at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “There’s very little chance for the climate to return to the conditions of 20 years ago.”

Antarctica

Conversely, Antarctica is exhibiting very different characteristics; and researchers believe that is because of the ozone hole that hovers above.

Gareth Marshall, of the British Antarctic Survey, points to changes in air pressure combined with the depleted stratospheric levels of ozone as the culprits for an increase in westerly winds. These winds sweep in along the Southern Ocean, isolating much of Antarctica from the impact of global warming.

The notable exception to this however is the Antarctic Peninsula, which sits just above the latitudes at which the winds sweep in. We have already seen what happens to locations that are not protected by these westerly winds (ie, the breaking up of the Larson Ice Shelf).

Good News / Bad News

The late 90’s – especially here in Australia where we are one of the nations closest and most affected by the ozone hole – was predominated by the need to change our ways. We had to stop using less of the chemicals that bore the hole in the ozone layer. Experts believe that the ozone layer will be fully recovered by 2070, as a result of strict international agreements banning these chemicals.

Subsequently, Francis and her colleagues believe that the ozone’s recovery will open the way for Antarctica to be subject to the same effects that are eating away at its northern cousin. It is, in all its glory, the epitome of “good news/bad news.”

Image courtesy of Wikipedia, depicting the collapsing Larsen B Ice Shelf and a comparison to the U.S. state of Rhode Island.

Remember CFCs? They had the power to flavour teenage armpits and work wonders on refrigeration.

There’s two things I remember from when I was growing up. Well, not two things literally. That would suggest a woebegone adolescence. No, two things of environmental importance.

At 15, Chernobyl. A complete nuclear meltdown causing Europeans to duck for cover to avoid the prevailing winds.

Yeah, so plants are safer now, aren’t they? Well, look, personally, when you play with atoms, I still think of Hiroshima and Chernobyl, once smiling communities now nothing but cancerous shells of their former selves. Higher safety standards lead to greater complacency. No-one reading this can guarantee that another nuclear disaster won’t happen, so please, let’s leave that one alone. I’ve heard it all before.

(I don’t like things that glow in the dark really. I have innate misgivings.)

And as well as Chernobyl, we had an enormous hole in the ozone layer recognised for the first time.

But we often need a reminder of what ensued. The Montreal Protocol. Widely adhered to on an international level, a superb piece of cooperation and a credit to all involved.

Sure, the ozone layer is still in a poor state, but that should never reflect badly on what leaders are capable of when acting as one.

I guess the ozone layer was more tangible to the human eye. You see hurricanes, heat waves, enormous slabs of ice falling to the sea, you don’t see climate change. It’s not visible per se.

They’re still seen as natural events, two and two still equalling five for the oil baron, business as usual, money more important than hideous legacy.

Something’s going to happen. Something so cataclysmic. Maybe a global tempest, maybe the peaceful protests of millions acting as one, cooperating as leaders once did in Montreal.

It’ll happen. And when it does, I’ll be there with you, breathing deeply from the fresh air, oil wells silenced.