As a passionate enemy of suburban sprawl, I listened intently to an interview this morning on NPR with Brookings Institution demographer William Frey in which he notes that housing prices are falling faster in the areas outside cities. Is this a permanent correction that is making “exurbs” less desirable overall? And how are gas prices influencing this loss of home value? Mr. Frey was cautious in his answer, saying “the jury is still out” and that Americans have a history of moving outward from cities in order to buy more housing for less, seeing long commutes as an acceptable trade off.

However, it doesn’t take a genius to see that, when a commute costs more than one is saving on housing, while sucking up hours of one’s valuable time, (and as the saying goes, “They aren’t making more of that”) why would one buy a home in the far suburbs? Why, indeed?

Sperling’s Best Places did a survey two years ago when gas prices were at $2.90 a gallon. The following were the most expensive cities in which to commute and listed the average annual commuting cost:

City Annual Commuting Cost (2006)

1. Atlanta $5,772
2. Birmingham, Ala. $5,464
3. Orlando, Fla. $5,404
4. Jacksonville, Fla. $5,360
5. Pensacola, Fla. $5,173

So, if gas prices reach $6.00, Atlanta’s commuting cost would be over $10,000 per year. Yikes.

A posting on Wall Street Journal’s online edition reports that even the conservative International Energy Agency is moving toward the Peak Oil Pessimists’ camp. The conclusion is that it’s not speculators making oil go higher but simple capitalist principles like the law of supply and demand – developing countries are going to be driving up demand for many years to come.

So will this result in an end to sprawl? Will avoidance of driving cause the demise of the ugly, cookie-cutter mini-mall blight that has mushroomed around our cities like an invasive species? Let’s hope so.

Sprawl Kills

Addressing Peak Oil at the Local Level

Consumers typically have paid a premium for environmentally friendly products. But with soaring energy prices pushing up the price of mainstream goods, green products are becoming just as — or even more — affordable these days.

Because eco friendly companies tend to use fewer fossil fuels in production and tend to focus on energy saving techniques, as the price of oil rises, it impacts green companies less. Eco friendly products made from natural materials, rather than plastic, a petroleum derivative, are impacted less by rising material costs. The same applies for packaging costs. Avoiding the plastic wrapper turns out to have been a smart economic move.

Of course eco friendly companies are still impacted by the rise in shipping costs, but the value added equation for green products is starting to look pretty positive. Consumers faced with a slight up charge rather than a large one for a better or more eco friendly products will tend to bite the bullet and spend the money.

This confluence of factors should drive sustainable business practices into the mainstream and more and more companies see the economic benefits of going green. A positive for the green movement and a benefit for established ecopreneurs.

We try to leverage situations like this to grow into new markets,” says Jeff Mendelsohn, founder and chief executive officer of New Leaf Paper LLC, a maker of recycled paper. “Where there’s instability in prices, buyers tend to be more open to new sourcing, and that’s a general market strategy, not just green.”

Related Posts:

Worried About The High Cost Of Green Products? Inflation Will Help

Times They Are a Changing: Green Marketing Tips for Eco Entrepreneurs in 2008

3 Hidden Costs of High Oil Prices

Photo Credit:Paparutzi at Flickr Under Creative Commons License

It is a complicated situation we’ve put ourselves in. Beyond the water quality and air quality problems we’ve had for more than a century, we are now facing global climate change, there is concern about ‘peak oil’ and all of the ramifications related to that issue (including drilling for oil in ecological world treasures), and there are increasing concerns about the sustainability of our global food systems and how we are going to feed our future generations. Cities and stores are just now starting to ban plastic bags, realizing after a few decades that a product that will not disappear for thousands of years should not be reproduced.

We are facing very complicated issues that are a result of the very unnatural and complicated things and systems we have created in recent times.

How do we address these problems and concerns?

As Albert Einstein said a few years ago,

“No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it.”

We keep wanting to find the next technological breakthrough that is going to bring us out of this mess. We keep wanting to buy the next green product that allows us to live the same lifestyle while feeling that we are saving the earth (our future generations and fellow creatures really, since the earth will survive). We keep wanting to look out for the solutions to these problems that were created by looking out in the first place and not being satisfied with the way things were.

We rush around everywhere, live busy lives, and “have to” drive or eat pre-packaged foods to support our lifestyle.

We feel like it’s alright to drive since we have a hybrid, but we emit more greenhouse gases because we drive more than we would in a Honda Accord or Toyota Camry. (Check out the top 17 reasons why the bicycle is the most popular vehicle in the world today.)

We want to live our complicated, modern-day lives and think that it is possible to do this and save the world as well if we have a green stamp on all of our products.

As implied above, we have to change our consciousness if we are going to solve the problems that we’ve inherited. We have to simplify our lives.

We have to say, I am going to live in a place where I don’t need a car and can get to work and the stores I need to go to on foot, bicycle, or public transit.

We have to say, I’m going to give myself enough time in the day to make meals out of non-processed foods.

We have to say, I am not going to load myself up with so many meetings and responsibilities and hobbies that I cannot live without a car and cannot take some time out to make my own dinner.

We have to change our lives, not the brand of our products. (Although, please do that as well!)

We have to realize that it is our lifestyles that are the problem.

Green represents life.

And it is our lives that have to be green,

not the products we consume and acquire.

Protests in Europe have been widespread, as Europeans who already pay twice that of our US cousins for fuel begin to feel the financial consequences of consistent price increases.

Truck drivers in Spain and France have blockaded major roadways and paralysed traffic on major city arteries. Meanwhile in the UK, similar protests by truck drivers - who claim they are rapidly being forced out of business by high fuel prices - have taken place across the country.

Adding to the chaos, Shell tanker drivers chose the same weekend to strike over pay disputes, causing many petrol (gas) stations to run out of fuel. Government calls to avoid panic buying have predictably caused a peak-oil dress rehearsal, with long queues forming on many petrol station forecourts.

Data released last week showed that British motorists have been driving less during the past year, with the volume of fuel sales falling by 20%. Considering the diabolical state of the UK’s public transport infrastructure we have no idea how motorists have been getting around in the meantime and can only assume they are simply staying at home.

With some pundits forecasting oil prices of over $200 a barrel by the end of the next year this situation is only likely to get worse, with governments having little opportunity to intervene in a crisis that holds them to the mercy of world markets.

So is there an upside? Many people seem to think that there is.

Sales of hybrid cars are booming. With record sales of Toyota’s hybrid Prius being forecast, rivals must be cursing themselves at their tardiness in entering this market. Even the most die-hard petrol heads are checking fuel economy figures in motoring magazines, and considering - heaven forbid - a diesel engine.

Many people are trying out public transport for the first time, finding it’s not as bad as they thought it was, although many others are finding that it is actually worse than they thought it was. Others are rediscovering the positive aspects of cycling, along with some minor bad ones.

But most importantly, high prices are starting to focus people on the value of energy, and the need to conserve it. Whilst energy is cheap the environmental impacts will remain distant for many, but high prices are forcing people to measure their energy usage and consider alternatives.

However, we should rejoicing the environmental benefits of high fuel prices with caution as many are suffering. In the meantime, let’s hope that some of the hardship can be offset by some positive change for good.

More from Green Options on High Oil Prices:

3 Hidden Costs of High Oil Prices

Obama’s Plan to Reduce Foreign Oil Dependence

Oil Price Archive

Image credit: Frazer Nash at Flickr under a Creative Commons license

When one of Texas’s richest oil men bets big on wind energy, it gets attention. Yesterday NPR’s Living on Earth broadcast an interview with Mr. Pickens, who shared the salient facts about his planned wind project:

• It will be the largest in the world, he reckons, at 4,000 megawatts
• It will provide enough power for 1,300,000 homes
• It’s a $10 billion dollar project from which he plans a 15%-25% profit

Asked why he is investing in wind now, Pickens replied:

“For a number of years I’ve watched the wind turbines develop — and I feel like it’s time for it. I think that oil has peaked at 85 million barrels in the world. We’ve got to develop other forms of energy — wind, I think solar will be next, and I hope I’m still around to be in the solar deal.” (Pickens is 80 years old.

But what if Congress doesn’t vote to extend the wind Production Tax Credit?

“Well, I think they’ll vote on it. They’ll either do that or they’ll give some kind of carbon credit because, the wind has to be developed in the United States. We’re now importing 72 percent of the oil we use every day. I think everybody can see that we’re gonna break the country if we pay 700 billion dollars a year for, uh, imported oil……I’ve got a good team of people that are knowledgeable in wind energy, and I don’t worry about it. I think it’s a good project, and it’ll do well and we’ll make money. And it’ll help the country.”

I took a look at Pickens’s bio on Wikipedia. He grew up poor but worked hard. He became a geologist in the 50’s, which “were difficult times for the oil industry and petroleum geologists.” He stuck at it and obviously his bet on oil paid off; Pickens is worth $3 billion now. But he’s moving on — to wind. Find out more about this story in the current issue of Fast Company.

Image credit: www.boonepickens.com

Last week, I posted about the tremendous relocalization efforts of the small town of Willits, CA. Earlier today, I had the chance to speak with Liam UiCearbhaill, the Operational Facilitator for Willits Economic LocaLization (WELL), the Willits relocalization group, about a variety of topics, including WELL’s community involvement, current projects, and future plans.

What is your specific role in the WELL organization?

My title is operational facilitator. I perform a number of functions, but the real focus is to help things happen. We try really hard not to be too possessive of any project. We look around the town and see who is already doing something good in a particular area and find ways to help them, and we look where nobody is doing anything and try to find ways to get things started. By using that approach, a lot has happened. There’s an alliance of groups that gets together to do grant writing, for instance.

How did you get involved in WELL?
I moved to this area about 5 years ago because I could perceive there was a problem [environmentally]. As I looked around, this looked like the most survivable area for this stuff I saw coming down the pipe. I was thinking of the environmental catastrophes I saw coming down the horizon, not necessarily peak oil. When WELL started up, it was pretty obvious to me that this was something I needed to get involved in.

What are some current collaborations with other organizations that WELL is working on?

We’ve recently applied for a number of grants. The one that we’re crossing our fingers on is about $187,000 coming from the California Department of Transportation. It would give us the money to complete all the inventories that we feel are necessary for localization here, as well as move along focus groups and public meetings to make recommendations for policy for the city council. Everything from food, water supply and watershed protection issues, transportation, housing, a whole list of different things. Pretty much everything we set out to do 3 ½ years ago when WELL began. This would pay for that process.

Last year we applied for a water conservation grant through the California State Toxics Control Department. It will pay for a Water Conservation Officer who will be developing a water conservation booklet, who will be working with various people on city water system to help them conserve, as well as working on ordinances at the city, county, regional and state levels to allow us to put in things like greywater recycling systems, to encourage rainwater catchment, and to experiment with bioswales. It will also put in demonstration sites at two public areas for rainwater catchment, a test site for greywater recycling, and a test site for bioswales.

We’ve also been working with Brookside Energy Farm. That’s a CSA that is on the grounds of an elementary school here. The kids help out sometimes, and it is a good educational process for them. The CSA gets more and more produce into the school cafeteria, sells shares to local residents, supplies local fresh vegetables to restaurants nearby, uses waste from restaurants in a worm bin to develop compost and does it all without the use of fossil fuels .

We work with the local Grange on a number of different events, including Eldertalk, where we ask older members of the community what life was like 80 years ago, how the economy was different. This has given us a lot of insight into how we might change things now.

What is WELL planning for the future?

We’re floating a concept to FEMA that in terms of emergency preparedness, our single biggest vulnerability is food. We have roughly 3 ½ days of food on store shelves at any given moment, and probably 7-8 days worth in people’s houses. And virtually all of our food comes in by truck. The amount that’s growing here locally is not significant compared to the calories consumed. What we’re asking FEMA to do is to underwrite the installation of homeland security gardens (based on the Victory Garden project of World War 2). That’s something we’re still trying to figure out.

How much of the Willits community is involved in WELL?

There are roughly 13,500 people in the zip code. Membership rolls are currently 300, of which a little over 200 are paid up. Our email list is probably 2-3 times that amount. It would be reasonable to say 5 percent or more of the population have expressed an interest or are directly involved in one way or another.

The Chamber of Commerce is one of our closest allies, but they are concentrating on local business ownership, buying local, and working towards local supply sources. And it’s paid off — for instance, Willits is the only tax district in the county whose revenue has actually gone up in the past year. Primarily, it has gone up in sales tax while our motel tax revenue has gone down. And we’re a major tourist area, so the fact that this happened tells me that the price of gas is affecting tourism, but we’re still getting more sales because people are buying things locally. So we’re having something of a business renaissance here, and the localization movement is right at the heart of that.

Whatever the cause (and there’s good reason to blame all three to some degree), most so-called experts these days aren’t expecting oil prices to drop anytime soon. In fact, Newsweek this week features a sobering article titled, “The Coming Energy Wars,” that predicts we’ll soon see oil prices top $200 a barrel. When that happens, the authors warn, we can expect everything about our daily lives to change.

Which cities in the U.S. are best prepared to deal with the new reality of costly and/or scarce fuel? I’ve been thinking about this a lot, especially as I live in a part of the country (northwest Florida) that’s got little in the way of public transportation or walkability. On the other hand, I do live fairly close to Seaside, a community built according to the ideas of New Urbanism.

According to SustainLane’s ranking of the greenest cities in the U.S., the communities with the best options for commuting — including public transit, bicycling and walking — are Washington, D.C.; New York City; San Francisco; Boston; Philadelphia; Chicago; Baltimore; Seattle; Honolulu; and Portland, Oregon. But even cities like these could face serious problems if a down economy means fewer dollars for public transportation just when the need is greatest.

Daniel Lerch at Post Carbon Cities notes that’s already become an issue for Denver, which has seen sales tax revenues drop recently, forcing it to consider making cuts to the public transit system that depends on those tax dollars.

How does your region measure up? Post Carbon Cities features a neat Google Map showing parts of the U.S. and Canada that have taken steps to deal with the new energy reality. Among the places showing some foresight: Minnesota, whose legislature recently approved a resolution asking the governor to “prepare a plan of response and preparation to meet the challenges of Peak Oil”; Connecticut, which has launched an energy scarcity and sustainability task force; and San Francisco, which was the first city in the U.S. to approve a measure to deal with peak oil.

How are you preparing to live in a new age of pricey and hard-to-get fuel? I’m interested to hear what steps you’re taking in your part of the country: let me know!

Developed nations have taken cheap, abundant fresh water largely for granted. Now global population growth, pollution, and climate change are shaping a new view of water as “blue gold.”

Dan Nees, a water-trading analyst with the World Resources Institute warns, “Water scarcity may be one of the most underappreciated global political and environmental challenges of our time.”  Even Dow Chemical Chairman Andrew Liveris called water “the oil of this century.”

The Transition Town initiative has been a fast-growing movement in the United Kingdom for over a year, with more than 50 towns currently signed up. Now the United States is catching up as Boulder, CO becomes the first official transition town in the country.

The Transition Town movement started in Kinsale, Ireland when permaculture teacher Rob Hopkins started thinking about the possibilities of applying permaculture theories to entire towns, instead of just to individual plots of land. Hopkins’ Energy Descent Action Plan provides a blueprint for towns hoping to transition to a more sustainable way of life.

Boulder County Going Local is an ambitious effort to prepare the area for the ramifications of climate change and peak oil.

BCGL was only named an official transition initiative earlier this month, but it’s getting started with a bang. The organization has already launched a series of talks and workshops to teach residents how to survive with local resources entitled “The Great Reskilling”. Planned events include “High Altitude Gardening”, “Garden Design and Planting A La Permaculture”, “The Bountiful Pantry”, and “Solar Greenhouse Design”.

It is sobering to think about how few survival skills most of us have. Perhaps if more transition initiatives like Boulder’s take off, we can relearn the skills that fossil fuel-based industrialization has rendered useless.

A few summers ago, I had the pleasure of spending some time in Willits, CA. This small, progressive town in Mendocino County harbors one of the best relocalization efforts in the United States, if not the world.

“Relocalization” is the idea that communities should produce food, energy, and goods locally. The movement developed in response to peak oil and climate change concerns, and may just be our best hope for surviving our current environmental crises.

The Willits Economic Localization organization (WELL) was founded in 2004 by a concerned local climate scientist named Jason Bradford. While the organization started out by showing the peak oil film “The End of Suburbia” (an excellent film that I highly recommend), it soon expanded its efforts into a number of areas, including business, education, energy, food, and health.

Despite the small size of Willits, WELL has made incredible strides towards its goals in the past few years.

For example, the organization has established multiple community gardens, submitted grants to establish a local food system, and is in the process of developing a one acre school farm.

WELL has also started a program called the The Grateful Gleaners that collects unharvested fruits and vegetables from local farms. In 2006, the project harvested three tons of produce that would have gone to waste.

Willits’ efforts have inspired a number of other relocalization efforts in California and around the world. Check out The Relocalization Network for examples and to gather ideas for starting your own relocalization organization.

photo credit: The Laughlin Nevada Guide

I have a wacky idea: it involves the photo above (from the National Geographic archives, taken 21 Sep 1938 by The Day, New London, CT), the designer Mitchell Joachim, the PDF here from the Global Citizen Center, and an article in New York magazine, dated 2/7/05.

See if you come to the same conclusion — or something better! 

In Juneau, Alaska, for example, people are proving it’s possible to change our energy-hogging ways literally overnight and still keep a community up and running. The inspiration in their case: an avalanche that severed the hydroelectric power lines serving the remote Alaska capital, cutting off about 80 percent of the city’s available electricity.

With service not expected to be restored for three or four months, residents have responded quickly and creatively, slashing their energy consumption in a wide variety of ways: turning off elevators, leaving airport runway lights on only when needed, turning off electronics displays in stores, lowering thermostats and hanging up clotheslines.

In the words of Sarah Lewis, who chairs the city’s Commission on Sustainability, the lesson has been to “Turn off, turn down, unplug.”

Across the U.S., other people are taking that lesson to heart not out of necessity, but because they want to. The New York Times recently profiled a young family from Austin, Texas, that’s giving up almost everything they own to adopt an organic lifestyle in a small Vermont cabin without electricity.

The article goes on to quote Mary E. Grigsby, who authored a book titled, “Buying Time and Getting By: The Voluntary Simplicity Movement.” Given the current situations with energy and oil supplies, Grigsby said, “It may be the right time.”

Closer to home, I’ve experienced by necessity what life after peak oil might feel like. After each of the Gulf Coast hurricanes we’ve lived through, my family and I spent days — sometimes weeks — without electricity, refrigeration, clean running water, air-conditioning or electronic entertainment. It wasn’t always comfortable — especially in Florida’s steamy summer climate — but it was doable, at least for a short time.

I think not only oil prices and peaks, but the economy in general, will be pushing more people into more sustainable lifestyles in the near future. In my own case, for example, a recent car breakdown too costly to repair has forced me into car-sharing. And, while I don’t want to risk my safety right now biking the main highway that leads to my town’s grocery stores, I’ll be ready to do that when more cars go idle. Plus, my home garden will make those trips less necessary over time as well.

What do you expect life after peak oil to look and feel like? How are you preparing? I’m interested to hear all of your thoughts.

Oil peak is going to change all of that - the world is going quickly to become a lot bigger. Global oil extraction will soon peak and go into decline. Our economies and our cities are not anywhere close to being prepared for making do with less petroleum (or natural gas, which may soon follow oil’s peak). The canary in the coalmine for the end of this small world notion is airline industry woes due to rising fuel prices. The world is going to revert to a much larger place and at some point, people will get the idea that it makes more sense in an energy constrained world to lay down their roots in a place that they really want to be.

As local culture re-develops, rising out of the ashes of the global monoculture of consumerism and suburban living, a sense of place and community will re-emerge as key differentiators as we strive to find a place where we belong. The other major consideration will be the whereabouts of friends and family, though I worry that many will find themselves alone and stranded in locale of their former workplace, unable to afford the cost of reuniting with their loved ones. Que sera sera…

Photo credit: Intercot

This morning on NPR, President Bush tried to blame congress for the nation’s high gas, food, and electricity prices. Apparently, Congress has been thwarting the President’s attempts to fix the economy:

“I’ve repeatedly submitted proposals to help address these problems,” the president said. “Yet time after time, Congress chose to block them.”

The President proposed dealing with high gas prices by “environmentally safe” drilling the the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, better known as ANWR.

“It’s been more than 30 years since America built its last new refinery, yet in this area, too, Congress has repeatedly blocked efforts to expand capacity and build more refineries,” Bush said.

Drilling in ANWR makes perfect sense, since it would supply 876,000 barrels of oil per day to a country that consumes 20,687,000 barrels of oil per day. To put that in perspective, 876,000 barrels is about 1 hour worth of oil, or over the course of a year amounts to about 15 days of US oil consumption.

Of course, we wouldn’t reach 876,000 barrels of oil per day until production peaked in 2025, assuming the oil started flowing by 2013. According to an analysis by the Energy Information Administration back in 2004 (that’s where these numbers come from), peak oil production in ANWR “might reduce world oil prices by as much as 30 to 50 cents per barrel, relative to a projected 2025 world oil price of $27 per barrel.”

Even if the analysis was spot-on about the price of oil (only $100 dollars off), would 30 to 50 cents make a difference? The analysis went on to say that OPEC (being OPEC) would probably “countermand” any change in price by reducing an equivalent amount of oil exports.

So how is it going to help the average American to drill in ANWR? It probably wouldn’t. With oil at $120 a barrel and rising steadily, the only thing that’s clear is how lucrative the proposal would be for oil companies.

Bush also mentioned lifting federal gas and diesel taxes (18.4 cents and 24.4 cents per gallon, respectively) over the summer, another move that would make a huge difference in long term energy security. I think Barack Obama is right about this one: it’s a “gimmick that won’t provide any significant relief to motorists.”

At a meeting with voters in North Carolina on Monday, Mr. Obama said lifting the gas tax for three months would save the average consumer no more than $30, a figure confirmed by Congressional analysts. Mr. Obama has previously dismissed Mr. McCain’s proposal as a “scheme.”

“Half a tank of gas,” Mr. Obama told his audience. “That’s his big solution.”

How about raising petroleum taxes and investing in renewable energy infrastructure? How about setting up a tax on carbon emissions like British Columbia just did? Anything but continuing to invest so heavily in a resource that’s on its way out.

It’s time to start looking for real solutions, and gracefully acquiescing that it’s the end of an era.

To hear Bush’s speech, listen to the NPR show from this morning. Have a comment on this topic? Share it below.

After the show, I was backstage hanging out with several of the band members. I was telling them that they really needed to play Reggae Rising - the world’s largest reggae festival (five hours North on Highway 101 where Eel River snakes along the highway). They had just put on an amazing show at Moe’s Alley in Santa Cruz, that often felt like a massive sing along.

As I was chatting backstage, my mind flashed to Melia (as it often does) and our earlier visit to the Lawrence Hall of Science:

Lawrence Hall of Science (LHS) is the public science museum and research center for K-12 education at the University of California, Berkeley. LHS offers hands-on science exhibits, discovery laboratories, computer labs, planetarium shows, after-school classes and summer camps, family workshops, special events, school programs and teacher education.

I was talking to one of the band members, trying out a new explanation for what I do. It seems like I am ALWAYS trying a new elevator pitch about what I do or a refinement to the existing one. I told him:

“we collectively and individually need to examine and fundamentally alter virtually every aspect of how we live on the planet. We all need to look for opportunities as we live our daily life. My work is to create such opportunities to work with public benefit organizations [aka nonprofits], local enterprises, and municipal government towards positive change.”

As an example, I mentioned our outing to Lawrence Hall (as I affectionately referred to it growing up in Berkeley). It had good exhibits but nothing front and center on climate change, oil depletion or localization.

They had a wonderfully produced exhibit on Speed which focused almost exclusively on the top speeds achieved by humans variously assisted by fossil fuel powered machines. The exhibit did not address the impact of all this fossil fuel-assisted speed on the plant with respect to climate change or depletion of resources.

It did not showcase the speed of a person on a bike or on their own two feet. No, it was about cars, rockets, planes, supersonic barriers, rapid deceleration, relativity, drag racing and crash test dummies. If they had a bicycle exhibit, it “was currently exhibiting a problem.”

I explained that, as a father, I am astounded that THE public science museum and research center for K-12 education FOR the University of California, Berkeley does NOT have an emphasis on climate change and resource depletion. What’s up with that?

Shouldn’t their mission be figuring out how to educate our kids (i.e., our future) in the science of sustainability? Shouldn’t one of the top priorities for our kid’s science education be using and expanding our understanding of science to make our ecological, economic, and social systems more sustainable?

I would venture to say that any such museum should develop its mission, strategies, and exhibits within the context of climate change and resource depletion. And localization as well since it will almost certainly be a key organizing principle for the conscious evolution of our economy and culture [stay tuned for a future post]. How else are we collectively going to make the ginormous shifts necessary unless, for one, our present and future science curricula on all levels address our pressing ecological, economic and social predicaments.

And if Lawrence Hall did rethink itself within this essential context, the changes would reverberate through the globe since their science and mathematics teaching materials and curricula are used in schools across the U.S. and worldwide. Of course, its not just the Hall that needs to change; I just happened to go there Saturday. It’s pretty much everything. Every building we enter, every entity we are involved with, every routine we adhere to…

In the Speed exhibit, one thing that particularly captured my attention was the crash test exhibit. They were explaining the physics of rapid deceleration in the car crash context and the use of crash test dummies to evaluate the relative safety of automobiles. The presence of the crash test dummy brought me back to my first public speech (see my previous post on Why I localize)
where I read the following stanza of poem called The Peak is Nigh:

are we but crash test dummies
mimicking sentient beings
about to hit the wall
failing an evolutionary experiment
in consciousness and wisdom
will we brace for impact
and watch wasteful lives
flash before our eyes
or will we relax
our adherence to
the script proselytized
by the corporate oligarchy
and oil-a-garchies
and change our course early enough
to prevent our children and collective future from
becoming collateral road-kill

Are we crash test dummies?

My favorite stanza of that poem is the last one:

we are strung out on fossil fuels
and when production wanes
you may find yourself
unable to afford your commute
and you may find yourself
far from public transportation
and without access to local goods
and you may find yourself
rationing food and fresh water
and you may ask yourself
how do I work this
this is not my lovely life
how did I get here

remember this moment

Without further adieu… My name is Dave Room (and that’s my daughter in the photo). I have been working on localization for the past four years. Sometimes it has felt like I am swimming upstream. Actually it still feels like that - the difference is that now the current is not quite as strong. As the financial underpinnings of our society unravel, as food prices soar, as oil prices regularly hit new highs - it seems like I am living a prophecy. Everything that is happening now has been more or less accurately predicted by a large International community of people who have been following our oil predicament. Another name for our oil predicament is peak oil, but its really all about the oil depletion and the coming imbalance between supply and demand. Sometimes I call these folks “the depletionista”.

Were it not for peak oil, I probably would not be an eco-localizer (but that’ll be another post). Undoubtedly, I’d be chasing dollars, trying to earn my way to a huge house in the Oakland Hills, and probably have my family intact. Had I stayed my previous course, I would have likely jumped into another start up tech firm and rode it to what would have likely been temporary monetary glory.

But how could I do that knowing what I knew and having the opportunity that I had. I chose to forgo sailing the Greek Isles (at least for now), seasonal sun chasing across the hemispheres, and the high energy life style that I previously enjoyed. Instead I toil working nonprofit wages, writing blogs that don’t get enough traffic to adequately compensate me for my time, and starting projects that just need to happen.

How could I do anything else? I have a five year daughter - she is my heart, my inspiration. And I know that one day, perhaps a decade from now or more, she is going to ask me “Papa, why is everything the way it is?” I have to be able to look into her beautiful brown eyes, and say that I did everything I could and that I still am doing everything I can. I have to know inside that it would have been worse without my efforts. I owe that to her and her contemporaries.

Almost four years ago, I was speaking at the Whole Earth Festival at UC Davis. I was the warm up act for Julia Butterfly Hill but no one was there yet because the stage was off to the side. Actually there were a few people, most of them appeared to be taking a rest from the beating sun. Fewer than 15 people were either lounging on haystacks or sitting on hay spread over ground. Nevertheless, I was juiced; my first public speech - on Mothers Day, feeling especially honored to have my then wife and my 18 month old tree hugger in the audience. Melia’s birth had been the tipping point for me to get active in working for a more sustainable future. That day, I started with a proverb which is attributed to a number of indigenous peoples that resonates strongly within me:

We don’t inherit the planet from our parents; we borrow it from our children
~ Common Indigenous Proverb

I told my heat exhausted, half indifferent audience that my goal was to pay this debt fully to Melia and her contemporaries. I noted that my ability to do so was, however, hampered by what I did inherit from my predecessors – the malignant, inequitable, deceptive unidimensional system that is spreading like a virus across the globe, ravaging Mother Earth and communities wherever it gains a toehold. Yeah, I was pretty hardcore with it. Anyway, I followed with the three points I hoped my audience would take away from the talk.

1. Although it may not be apparent, biosphere destruction is a life threatening problem
2. The situation is urgent because of the coming energy crisis
3. There is hope but we are going to have to begin working on solutions now – collectively and locally

Four years later, I still believe this.

How much does business-as-usual cost? This morning, Green Car Congress reported that the US is projected to pay $440 billion for imported petroleum in 2008:

The increase to the estimated $440 billion for 2008 is based on an average $90 per barrel crude oil price for the year. In 2002, before the current bull market for oil began, US oil imports cost less than $103 billion. The preliminary figures for last year came to some $327 billion.

With little prospect for cheaper gas prices in the future, any decrease in the US export bill will have to come from a reduction in petroleum usage.

Which brings to mind two important questions:

1. What percentage of our Gross Domestic Product will the US have to export before things start to change dramatically?
2. Where is all this money going, anyway?

Wired Magazine’s Autopia blog posted a partial answer to the first question last week ($3 Gas–No, $4 Gas–Will Change U.S. Driving Habits. Really.):

In the past six weeks, gas consumption has dropped by 1.1%. That’s the most sustained drop in 16 years, except for the period following Hurricane Katrina, according to the “Wall Street Journal.” And if prices reach $4, as many economists predict, an estimated 65 percent of American car owners report they will dramatically change their driving behavior, according to a study commissioned by the Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association.

As for the second question, this list from the Energy Information Administration may be helpful. Here are the top 5 countries we import oil from (and export oil money to):

1. Canada
2. Mexico
3. Saudi Arabia
4. Venezuela
5. Nigeria

Forty percent of our total oil imports come from OPEC countries, which means that in 2008 we should be exporting $177 billion to countries that hate the US or actively fund terrorism (more on this later).

But hey, at least there’s a lot of love for our Northern neighbors, eh?

Related Posts:
U.S. Gasoline Still Among World’s Cheapest
6 Ways To Find And Use Biodiesel Anywhere
The Growing Need for Fuel Substitution, Efficiency, and Conservation

Sources:
EIA: U.S. Imports by Country of Origin
GreenCarCongress (Mar. 9, 08): Projection: US to Pay $440B for Imported Petroleum in 2008

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