A senior economist at the Argonne National Laboratory has come to an interesting conclusion: vehicles that rely on internal combustion engines are superior to electric vehicles in terms of what consumers would buy and what would save significant fuel.

Even though Tesla is delivering their cars to consumers several years before the Volt hits the show rooms, from the perspective of Dan Santini, you and I are more likely to get our hands on Volt-style vehicles first.

Some of the main obstacles that stand between us and pure EVs were identified at the 1st International Conference on Advanced Lithium Batteries for Automotive Applications, sponsored by the Argonne National Laboratory (where Dan Santini works).

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Video source: greenjobsnowblogger on YouTube

Via and Image:  Off-Grid

The lengthening lead Japan’s auto makers hold in securing supplies of advanced batteries to power the next generation of automobiles has become a rallying point for the U.S. auto industry in seeking at least $25 billion in government loans.
Over the past decade, Japan’s auto giants have been teaming up with its electronics companies, which have dominated global battery manufacturing for laptop computers, mobile phones and other products.  Now the American auto companies are playing catch-up.

Securing an adequate supply of batteries over the next few years has become a growing concern for auto makers everywhere. The U.S. industry is leery of depending too heavily on foreign battery makers allied with Japanese auto makers, for fear those suppliers would give priority to filling the orders of their Japanese partners.

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BYD (Build Your Dreams) is China’s largest battery maker, and moving into the automotive industry.  BYD’s first plug-in hybrid planned for the Chinese market will be the F6DM mid-sized sedan in the second half of 2008, and use lithium iron phosphate batteries.  Its top speed is expected to be be 100 mph, with a range of 62 miles in all-electric mode and 267 miles total after the gas engine kicks in.  A fully electric version called the F6E is planned for 2009.  The F6E will be a 5 seater sedan with a top speed of 100 mph, range of 186 miles per charge, and expected battery lifetime of 2,000 cycles, or 373,000 miles.

The company is following this up with the impressive F3DM, which will be smaller, less expensive (selling for around $14,000 in China), and the company claims will have up to a 100 mile range in electric-only mode.  The F6DM styling is being compared to a Toyota Camry, while the F3DM (pictured above) is similar to a Corolla.

Currently BYD plans to sell the cars exclusively in China, expanding sales to Europe in 2-3 years.  However, Portland is trying to entice the company to bring the cars to the United States.

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Peugeot has announced plans to debut an all-new performance hybrid concept at the Paris motor show in October. According to the French manufacturer, the car, known for now as the RC Clubs, (but whose final name will be confirmed at the show), will be a four-door, four seat GT Coupe with “highly innovative hybrid architecture.”

Peugeot claim that the car boasts 313bhp, with combined CO2 emissions of 109g/km. If true, this would make the RC Clubs easily the most powerful model in production by the French outfit, yet also one of the greenest. Moreover, when running at low speeds, the RC will be powered solely by an electric motor, meaning zero emissions at source, much the same as the Toyota Prius and the Honda Civic Hybrid.

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In the world of hybrid and electric cars, the upcoming commercial release of the Chevrolet Volt must surely rank as the most widely (and wildly) anticipated event. Now GM has ramped up the expectation levels another notch by releasing two teaser pictures providing us with a sneak-peak of its much vaunted plug-in hybrid model.

The release of the pictures, showing parts of the front and rear ends, will be seen in the industry as a signal that GM is still very much on track for the forecast 2010 launch of this pioneering car.

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Over 40,000 electric vehicles (EV) are currently used in the United States. Most are used in fleet applications, from maintenance to checking parking meters; these EVs are mostly limited to 25 mph speed and 20 mile range. A growing number of fleet EVs, however, are early trails of a new generation of freeway-speed EVs that will be available to the mass consumer market in 2010.

Mitsubishi is on target to sell its electric vehicle in the U.S. in 2010. The i-EV is a friendly looking sub-compact which easily handles freeway speeds. It’s expected 100 mile-plus range per charge will meet the needs of urban dwellers and most in suburbia. The drive system uses three permanent magnetic synchronous motors which receive power from a 16kWh lithium battery stack. Tokyo Electric Power is currently testing ten i-EV

Nissan’s and Renault’s famous CEO, Carlos Ghosn, plans to be selling electric vehicles in the U.S. market in 2010. He anticipates more cities following London’s model of expensive congestion fees, with fee exemptions and preferred parking for zero-emission vehicles. In many markets, Nissan will offer electric vehicles with permanently installed lithium batteries that will be trickle charged. Nissan owns 51% of Automotive Energy Supply Corporation, which plans to be producing lithium batteries for 10,000 vehicles annually by 2010. Plant expansion has begun to produce lithium batteries for 60,000 electric vehicles annually.

By 2012, Ghosn plans to have a Renault-Nissan alliance offering a wide range of electric vehicles in many major markets, charging ahead of all competition. Economist Article

In Israel and Denmark, Renault and Nissan will partner with Project Better Place. to sell electric vehicles without batteries. Project Better Place will lease batteries that can be quickly exchanged at many locations. The exchange will take no longer than a traditional gasoline fill-up, appealing to motorists needing extended range. The battery lease will cost a fraction of what most now spend on gasoline.

Popular in Europe, Think will bring its electric vehicle to the U.S. Think city reaches a top speed of 65 miles per hour and can drive up to 110 miles on a single charge. Think city meets all European and US federal motor vehicle safety requirements. At the Geneva Motorshow earlier this year, Think announced a strategic partnership with energy giant General Electric, also an investor in Think. By 2011 look for a larger TH!NK Ox. Think has also established partnerships in the US with battery suppliers A123 and EnerDel. Think has established a U.S. headquarters and will begin sales in the U.S. before 2010. A123 Technology Review Article

In 2009, the smart ev may be available in the U.S. The cars 70/70 specs are appealing for city drivers: 70 mile range, 70 mile per hour freeway speed. Daimler’s smart ev is in trail in the UK with the Energy Saving Trust, Islington and Coventry Councils, Lloyds Pharmacy, EDF Energy, BT, and other fleets. To achieve a range of 72 miles, it is using the Zebra sodium-nickel-chloride battery which has caused maintenance difficulties in some U.S. fleets.

The cityZENN is planned for a top speed of 80 mph and a range of 250 miles. Powered by EEStor barium-titanate ceramic ultracapacitors, the cityZENN will be rechargeable in less than 5 minutes! Venture capitalists are betting that stealth EEStor is real. On Friday, May 30, ZENN Motor Company announced that it had raised another $15 million dollars.

Most major auto makers continue to believe that most U.S. customers will insist on ranges exceeding 250 miles and a national infrastructure of fuel refilling (or recharging) in five minutes. Even as GM announces factory closings and plummeting sales, CEO Richard Wagner states that GM is committed to bring the plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt to market by the end of 2010. If it can deliver at under $30,000, the vehicle will offer tough competition to some of the smaller EV players.

As Toyota solidifies its number one global market share leadership, it also remains on target to deliver a plug-in hybrid to the U.S. market by the end of 2010. It is likely to have an all-electric range of 40 miles and a gasoline range 10X that amount. Watch Toyota use an expanded line of hybrid vehicles to unset GM, making Toyota the market leader is the U.S.

May rained on every auto maker’s parade in the U.S., except Honda, which set sales records with its fuel efficient Civic. Honda is passing Chrysler to become the #4 seller in the U.S. Honda is rumored to be bringing a new hybrid to the U.S. next year priced in the mid-teens. This will give hybrids a big boost in market share from the current 3% of total vehicle sales.

While I was giving a speech at the Fuel Cell 2008 , Honda announced that it would lease 200 Clarity FCX hydrogen fuel cell cars for $600 per month, including maintenance. In June, it will start selecting from 50,000 who have expressed interest in the 270-mile range four-door sedan. The FCX Clarity is aerodynamic and beautifully styled. Honda’s new hybrid is likely to have a similar body style.

Some critics have dismissed electric vehicles as golf carts for retirees and sport car toys for millionaires. These critics have missed a fundamental market shift that started with the success of hybrid-electric cars, light electric vehicles, and with e-scooters. Customer enthusiasm for electric vehicles is the result of many factors:

• Oil Prices
• ZEV Cities & Congestion Tax
• Electronic drive simplifies auto design
• Vehicle weight reduction with electric accessories and components
• Reduced maintenance because of few mechanical components
• GHG Regulation
• Battery technology advances that reduce cost and weight
• Increased battery safety
• Success of hybrid-electrics

At the FRA Renewable Energy Investor Conference (my presentation handouts), I led a panel discussion about electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. Major private equity and project finance investors were optimistic in sessions about electric vehicles, solar power, wind power, and carbon trading. Many expressed discouragement in the biofuels sessions, but at the same time saw increased opportunities with bioenergy and bio-methane from landfills.

In a few years, millions will be driving full-featured freeway-speed four-door sedan electric vehicles. Look for a shift away from foreign oil to riding on local renewable energy.

John Addison publishes the Clean Fleet Report and speaks at transportation and energy conferences.

Which system will survive? Or will we have a mixture of E85’s, biodiesel, electric, air and hydrogen fueled vehicles cramming our highways and straining the fuel delivery system infrastructure? Eventually, according to the age-old theory that the fittest shall survive, one method of moving us from point “A” to point “B” will emerge, and some folks are betting on the plug-in hybrid.

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Rick Wagoner, Chairman and CEO of General Motors, told a group of us that we have two basic choices: use oil until the oil’s gone, or start working on alternatives now and avoid a drastic and potentially unpleasant switch.

While producers are still putting out large, gas-driven vehicles with relatively low fuel economy, the major players are inching toward alternatives and pursuing new technology as rapidly as they say they can. The green theme was so pervasive that some have dubbed 2008 the ‘green year for auto manufacturing’.

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Looking for a sweet ride that can get you infinity miles per gallon? Check out the Eco-Chic Fisker Karma, a luxury sports sedan capable of 50 miles of emissions free-driving on one overnight charge.

This sexy-looking sports car, which I stumbled upon at the Detroit Auto Show earlier this week, uses the same kind of technology as the lusted-after Chevy Volt. Both cars use a purely electric drive train for the first 40-50 miles of driving, then switch to a small gasoline engine that recharges the lithium ion battery pack for longer drives. This means that if you drive less than 50 miles per day, you’ll only need to refill the tank once per year.

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During the frenzy of PR announcements yesterday, I had the opportunity to sit down with Tony Posawatz, Vehicle Line Director for GM’s Chevy Volt. If you aren’t familiar with the Volt, here’s a short introduction: it’s a plug-in electric hybrid vehicle, capable of 40 mile trips before relying on a small internal-combustion generator to repower the battery system. For more background, see Jeff’s posts from last year (Will GM Revive the Electric Car? Part 1).

Here’s a summary of our 10 minute conversation (believe me, I had to be torn away from this interview):

What major issues are keeping the Volt from an earlier release date (I’ve been told 2010):

Posawatz: GM is relatively certain it will be the first auto manufacturer to produce a plug-in hybrid model (regardless of the actual release date), but we want it to be right. The two major factors holding back the Volt’s release are extensive testing requirements and lithium ion battery technology. The batteries aren’t cheap, and they’re produced out of country. They also require extensive testing both in and out of the car before things go into production. Basically, GM won’t release the Volt until it’s proven safe and the batteries work.

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Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak may be the first mayor in the nation to drive a plug-in hybrid vehicle as his official city car.

Since he was first elected in 2002, Mayor Rybak’s official car has been a Toyota Prius. But the dramatically superior gas mileage of a plug-in hybrid vehicle prompted him to make the switch: he had his hybrid converted to a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, from which he expects to get about 70 miles per gallon (mpg) compared to his average 40 mpg with the Prius.

A plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) is like a regular hybrid with a cord. That is, its battery can be recharged by plugging it into a regular 120-volt outlet.

Typical of many PHEVs, Mayor Rybak’s car can travel about 30 miles solely on battery power if the speeds are 30 mph or less. If he drives further or needs to go faster, the car automatically switches over to using the gas engine. But for local city driving — when speeds are low and distances are shorter — he could go days without using any gasoline to power the engine.

Although most of Minnesota’s electricity comes from coal power, powering a vehicle with the electric grid is still cleaner than gasoline. But the Mayor and other city officials want to make it even cleaner: Minneapolis has applied for a state grant to install solar panels on some city buildings so that future plug-in cars could charge up using solar power instead of fossil fuels. Rybak told the Minnesota Daily:

It became clear to me that the two big things we had to do were convert to plug-in hybrids and find a way to have them use electricity from non-coal sources … I become very frustrated with people saying we need to do years of research on all these issues. Research is great, but the technology is there right now.

Last year, Minnesota became the first state in the nation to pass legislation promoting plug-in hybrids. The law instructs the state to buy plug-in hybrids on a preferred basis when they become available and encourages Minnesota State University - Mankato to develop flex-fuel plug-in hybrid vehicles (plug-ins that can run on an ethanol blend).

Minneapolis has about 100 government vehicles that are either hybrids or use E-85 fuel (an 85 percent ethanol, 15 percent gasoline blend). Leadership from the city and supportive government policies could make plug-in hybrids a more common occurrence on Twin Cities roads.

BIOconversion Blog
Cal Cars
City of Minneapolis
Minnesota Daily

Photo Source: City of Minneapolis

Today was a big day for GM’s concept Chevrolet Volt. First, they announced an official partnership with A123Systems for the creation of the Volt’s batteries, then they told Reuters they had a firm production schedule that includes a 2010 sale date. If they stick to it, it will be the first plug-in electric hybrid from any major manufacturer. GM vice chairman of Global Product Development Bob Lutz announced that GM and A123Systems have agreed to co-develop battery technology for the forthcoming Chevy Volt (and other GM E-Flex vehicles) using A123’s nanophosphate battery technology.

"A123Systems is considered a forerunner in the development of nanophosphate-based cell technology, which, compared to other lithium-ion battery chemistries, provides higher power output, longer life and safer operations over the life of the battery."

This does not necessarily mean that LG Chem is out of the running to supply batteries for the Volt or other GM vehicles. The press release from GM notes that both A123Systems and LG Chem are potential suppliers for E-Flex vehicles. "A123Systems and LG Chem are both top-tier battery suppliers, with proven technologies," said Denise Gray, director of GM’s Energy Storage Devices and Strategies. "We’re confident one, or possibly both of these companies’ solutions will meet our battery requirements for the E-Flex system." But the close cooperation between GM and A123 for the development of batteries specifically for GM’s needs makes it more likely that A123Systems will end up as the major supplier for the final product.

Development of these batteries will, of course, have implications in fields other than just plug-in/hybrid vehicles. Presently, much of A123Systems’ battery production is used for power tools. But ongoing developments in battery technology will have ramifications for all kinds of devices that use portable power from cordless tools to laptop computers and other portable electronics.

After the press conference Reuters caught Lutz, and asked him more specifically about the Volt’s time line. Lutz replied "We’ll have some on the road for testing next spring, and we should have the Volt in production by the end of 2010." That’s the firmest language we’ve yet heard, and the only date currently set by any manufacturer for a plug-in hybrd.

You can find the whole press release in the article at GM-Volt.com.

Hank Green contributed to this article. Cross-posted at EcoGeek.org.

Also on Green Options:

Will GM Revive the Electric Car? Parts 1 and 2.

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, or PHEVs, have been in the news a lot lately (and here on Green Options, too!). It’s an appealing idea - virtually no emissions, just plug in your car at night and go. Plus, the batteries that drive them could store electricity for homes and offices. When cars are parked and plugged in, the electric utility could draw on stored battery power during times of peak demand (with compensation to the car owner).

But will plug-in cars really be ready for widespread use by 2010?

Reading the news, you might think that PHEVs are just around the corner. Toyota just displayed a plug-in version of its Prius. A recent study by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the Natural Resource Defense Council (NRDC) says that if plug-in cars are in widespread use from 2010 to 2050, the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions could be dramatic.

Certainly people are trying to make it happen, spurred by inventor/advocates such as Felix Kramer of CalCars.org and others. The Austin City Council has launched a $1 million campaign to promote plug-ins. Google’s philanthropic arm is donating $10 million towards the development of the technology. General Motors made a splash with its Chevy Volt concept in January. Ford has joined the party with a plug-in prototype of its Edge SUV.

But as our automotive expert John DeCicco points out, there are some daunting technical issues. In a briefing before the U.S. Senate [PDF], Advanced Automotive Batteries president Menahem Anderman estimated that plug-ins won’t be generally available for another 10 years. Honda manager John German, also in Senate testimony [PDF], said that the problems with plug-ins were so difficult that Honda wasn’t even going to try.

So what’s going on? Are plug-ins around the corner, 10 years away, or not realistic at all?

The bugaboo is the battery. Here’s a summary of the problems, based on Anderman’s analysis:

1. The plug-in battery will be about 3 to 5 times the size of today’s non-plug-in hybrid batteries, essentially filling the cargo space of an average sedan.
   The weight of this battery will add 200 to 300 lbs. to that of the car, putting a drag on performance and efficiency.
2. The lithium batteries needed to provide adequate performance for plug-ins raise a serious concern about hazardous failure, such as a fire in a home garage, because they need much deeper, full charging than the smaller batteries of today’s hybrids, which are always kept at an intermediate state of charge.
3. The cost of this plug-in battery (at pack level) to carmakers, using present technology, will be 3 to 5 times the average cost of today’s hybrid batteries, i.e. around $5,000 to $7,000 per pack.
4. The life of any battery technology, lithium or otherwise, when used in a plug-in car is not known. There’s a good chance that battery life will be short, meaning costly replacements over the life of a vehicle.

John German points to market problems, as well. He says that unless battery prices drop considerably, the vehicles will be too expensive for broad acceptance. So Honda has instead chosen to focus on hydrogen fuel cell technology.

German closes his statement with some good advice about how the government can help:

It is impossible to predict the pace of technology development and when breakthroughs will or will not occur. Accordingly, technology-specific mandates cannot get us where we need to go. In fact, previous attempts to mandate specific technologies have a poor track record, such as the attempts in the 1990s to promote methanol and the California electric vehicle mandate. The primary effect of technology-specific mandates is to divert precious resources from other development programs that likely are more promising. If there are to be mandates, they should be stated in terms of performance requirements, with incentives and supported by research and development.

So will plug-in hybrids eventually become mainstream? Possibly, but only with sufficient investment in the development of battery technology. Since we can’t know for sure which technologies will work out, it’s best to push ahead on all fronts - including making better use of the technologies already at hand - and not put all our eggs in the plug-in basket.

What happens to the air we breathe when plug-in hybrids become commonplace in a few years? Are we going to suddenly need hundreds of additional electrical plants to make all that extra electricity for the power that is no longer being supplied by gasoline? Would wide-scale switching from gasoline vehicles to plug-in electric vehicles be jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire?

A report jointly issued by the National Resources defense Council (NRDC) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) addresses some of these questions in greater detail. It is worthwhile to think about these questions as these technologies get closer to widespread implementation. Unintended consequences of increasing numbers of electric cars already include concerns about the very quiet operation of electric hybrids when their gas engines are not running, and the potential hazard these vehicles now pose for blind pedestrians, who have much more difficulty detecting the approach of these vehicles than ordinary internal combustion vehicles.

"Among study’s key findings:

• Widespread adoption of PHEVs can reduce GHG emissions from vehicles by more than 450 million metric tons annually in 2050 — the equivalent to removing 82.5 million passenger cars from the road
• There is an abundant supply of electricity for transportation; a 60 percent U.S. market share for PHEVs would use 7 percent to 8 percent of grid-supplied electricity in 2050
• PHEVs can improve nationwide air quality and reduce petroleum consumption by 3 million to 4 million barrels per day in 2050"

Keeping a few dozen coal-burning power plants clean, and adding extra equipment to further clean their exhaust output is far easier and more cost-effective than carrying out the changes necessary to clean the exhaust systems for millions of vehicles. Greater efficiency is possible for a fixed installation, like a coal plant scrubber, than is practical for any on-board equipment that a car has to carry around.

Generate more juice to power cars, and greenhouse gas emissions from power plants will rise, even as the carbon dioxide pouring out of tailpipes declines. However, it’s not an equal tradeoff, because even dirty electricity produced on a grand scale is cleaner than running millions of internal-combustion engines. According to the 2006 DOE study, switching to PHEVs would yield an average net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 27 percent per car. In California, which has the country’s cleanest electric-generation system, the figure would be 40 percent. (Popular Mechanics)

Some additional electricity will neeed to be generated to offset transmission losses from electricity traveling through wires, but that is balanced somewhat by the reduction of tanker trucks needed to deliver gasoline from refineries to fueling stations across the country (a transmission loss in petroleum fuel, as it were). Recharging of plug-in vehicles will most likely take place in the evening, when electrical demand is already off-peak. With very little extra equipment, intelligent recharging can be timed to take place when demand on the grid is lowest.

Rewiring existing garages with adequate electrical service to be able to supply the vehicles without causing a household fire hazard may be one of the biggest hurdles to overcome for many plug-in hybrid owners. Existing wiring may be only marginal for vehicle recharging in many cases.

The likely outcome of increasing numbers of plug-in hybrids (and other electric vehicles) seems likely to be a net environmental positive.

Cross-posted at EcoGeek.org

Link: NRDC press release
via: Popular Mechanics

I'm not that much of an automobile enthusiast. Despite my proximity to the Motor City, I don't pay constant attention to the latest twitches in the auto industry. I take the bus to work, and drive a car only occasionally, usually for errands or to shuttle the kids someplace. But I attended the GM ChallengeX event on behalf of EcoGeek.org and Green Options, and I learned a number of things about where automotive technology is trying to go, and came away excited about new things coming along in the automotive industry.

In addition to the work being done in the ChallengeX competition, GM itself is forging ahead in a number of areas with plans for a wide range of fuel options. Dr. Gary Smyth, one of the GM engineers I had the opportunity to meet over dinner, spoke at length about the fuel mix for automobiles in the future. With increasing demand for vehicles, the issue is not whether, say, switchgrass ethanol or bio-diesel is going to be the magic bullet that addresses the future demand for fuel. Rather, it is going to be a mix of a number of different fuels, all of which are being widely used, that is going to be necessary to keep up with demand, both domestically and internationally. "Displacing petroleum" was the phrase that I heard a number of times throughout the day. GM has evidently seen the writing on the wall and is taking steps to address it.

The configuration of some of GM's cars coming out in the next few years is such that the fuel source does not have to drive the development of the vehicle. With the proposed Chevy Volt, for example, the vehicle is driven by its electric motors and its batteries. Whatever internal combustion engine or fuel cell or something else is under the hood is just to run an electrical generator. The vehicle can get its fuel from whatever source the consumers prefer, and in some cases, as with the current Flex-Fuel vehicles in GM's fleet, it may be possible to use more than one kind of fuel.

GM has set itself on course to use lithium-ion batteries for its forthcoming electric vehicles such as the Chevy Volt. One of the issues with lithium-ion batteries is that they can overheat. There have already been multiple incidents and recalls of laptop computer batteries due to fire hazards from these batteries. The increased energy density means that they are able to provide more useful charge with less weight. But that same energy density also means that the batteries can be more prone to damage from overheating.

One thing that was suggested was for the Volt (and other cars with these batteries) is to have a small solar panel on the car that would provide enough power to operate a circulating fan that could help keep the battery array cooler. This is just one of the many issues that needs to be dealt with and overcome in order to bring the Volt to market. And it is small details such as this that will be the success or failure of the Volt.

I'm much more of an automotive enthusiast than I was a couple of months ago. And I will probably be paying a bit more attention to some of the things going on in the auto industry.

For some other perspectives on the meetings that GM personnel had with several bloggers at the event, see these articles, as well:

Autoblog Green
Podtech.net
GM-volt.com (and also here)
Groovy Green