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As land and water become scarce, competition for these vital resources intensifies within societies, particularly between the wealthy and those who are poor and dispossessed. The shrinkage of life-supporting resources per person that comes with population growth is threatening to drop the living standards of millions of people below the survival level, leading to potentially unmanageable social tensions.

Access to land is a prime source of social tension. Expanding world population has cut the grainland per person in half, from 0.23 hectares in 1950 to 0.10 hectares in 2007. One tenth of a hectare is half of a building lot in an affluent U.S. suburb. This ongoing shrinkage of grainland per person makes it difficult for the world’s farmers to feed the 70 million people added to world population each year. The shrinkage in cropland per person not only threatens livelihoods; in largely subsistence societies, it threatens survival itself. Tensions within communities begin to build as landholdings shrink below that needed for survival.

The Sahelian zone of Africa, with one of the world’s fastest-growing populations, is an area of spreading conflict. In troubled Sudan, 2 million people have died and over 4 million have been displaced in the long-standing conflict of more than 20 years between the Muslim north and the Christian south. The more recent conflict in the Darfur region in western Sudan that began in 2003 illustrates the mounting tensions between two Muslim groups–camel herders and subsistence farmers. Government troops are backing Arab militias, who are engaging in the wholesale slaughter of black Sudanese in an effort to drive them off their land, sending them into refugee camps in neighboring Chad. At least some 200,000 people have been killed in the conflict and another 250,000 have died of hunger and disease in the refugee camps.

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Birth control has become an important issue for woman’s rights as well as the environment. However, a survey of South Korean women age 19-34 found 45% believe contraception should be a man’s responsibility.

The survey, by the Study Group for Contraception, shows that most women are doing little or nothing to avoid unwanted pregnancies. Of the 1000 women who participated in the survey, one in five said she relied on coitus interruptus or timing pregnancy cycles as a form of birth control. Both methods have high failure rates of around 25%.

What’s more, abortion is illegal in South Korea, except under extenuating circumstances. The result is an almost entirely first-world country where each year hundreds of thousands of women practice illegal abortions at “don’t ask don’t tell” clinics.

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Should population growth be curbed?

Immediately, we are faced with important moral, ethical and religious quandaries.

I write this in the light of a piece that appeared in the UK’s Observer. In it, John Gray, a political philosopher, states:

The uncomfortable fact, which is ignored or denied by both ends of the environmental debate, is that an energy-intensive lifestyle of the kind enjoyed in the rich parts of the world cannot be extended to a human population of nine or 10 billion, the level forecast in UN studies for the middle of this century.

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Editor's note: In today's Red, Green and Blue, our political commentators Jimmy Hogan and Shirley Siluk Gregory weigh in on New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg's PlaNYC for the city's long-term sustainability.

Our format has changed just slightly. Each writer will alternate starting the discussion with a post; the other one will join the discussion in the comments. Remember — you're always welcome to join in!

Shirley: It's hard to not be impressed by New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg's PlaNYC for future sustainability: it lays out an ambitious (and costly) set of initiatives for heading off the city's potential challenges with the coming two decades' expected increases in population, energy demands, transit needs and climate threats. Bloomberg, a Republican, has got all the right things in there, from an $8 charge to discourage cars driving into the city at peak traffic hours to a plan to encourage green roofs to, yikes, even backing for a carbon tax to put the kibosh on greenhouse gas emissions. The plan is so comprehensive and bold, even green progressives have been hard-pressed to find quibbling points (the strongest I could find so far is from someone who was irked by the traffic fee exemption for livery vehicles and taxis).

Even by the standards of other Republican leaders who get environmental religion (often because their domains fall in fragile, coastal regions where the reality of nature is hard to ignore), Bloomberg's plan is lofty and admirable. My only caveat is that it's just that — a plan — and Bloomberg doesn't have nearly enough time left in office (just over 2 1/2 years) to even scratch the surface of its goals. Here's hoping he remains a staunch and vocal champion of PlaNYC long after his term ends, keeps lots of friends in high places who share his goals, and is ready to become the GOP's Al Gore for a worthy cause.

Africa is not alone. In India, tension between Hindus and Muslims is never far below the surface. As each successive generation further subdivides already small plots, pressure on the land is intense. The pressure on water resources is even greater. With India’s population projected to grow from 1.2 billion in 2007 to 1.7 billion in 2050, a collision between rising human numbers and shrinking water supplies seems inevitable. The risk is that India could face social conflicts that would dwarf those in Rwanda. The relationship between population and natural systems is a national security issue, one that can spawn conflicts along geographic, tribal, ethnic, or religious lines.

Disagreements over the allocation of water among countries that share river systems is a common source of international political conflict, especially where populations are outgrowing the flow of the river. Nowhere is this potential conflict more stark than among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia in the Nile River valley. Agriculture in Egypt, where it rarely rains, is wholly dependent on water from the Nile. Egypt now gets the lion’s share of the Nile’s water, but its population of 75 million is projected to reach 121 million by 2050, thus greatly expanding the demand for grain and water. Sudan, whose 39 million people also depend heavily on food produced with Nile water, is expected to have 73 million by 2050. And the number of Ethiopians, in the country that controls 85 percent of the river’s headwaters, is projected to expand from 83 million to 183 million.

Since there is already little water left in the Nile when it reaches the Mediterranean, if either Sudan or Ethiopia takes more water, then Egypt will get less, making it increasingly difficult to feed an additional 46 million people. Although there is an existing water rights agreement among the three countries, Ethiopia receives only a minuscule share of water. Given its aspirations for a better life, and with the Nile being one of its few natural resources, Ethiopia will undoubtedly want to take more.

In the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia, there is an uneasy arrangement among five countries over the sharing of the two rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, that drain into the sea. The demand for water in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan already exceeds the flow of the two rivers by 25 percent. Turkmenistan, which is upstream on the Amu Darya, is planning to develop another half-million hectares of irrigated agriculture. Racked by insurgencies, the region lacks the cooperation needed to manage its scarce water resources. Geographer Sarah O’Hara of the University of Nottingham who studies the region’s water problems, says, “We talk about the developing world and the developed world, but this is the deteriorating world.”

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Adapted from Chapter 6, “Early Signs of Decline,” in Lester R. Brown, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2008), available on-line at http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/Seg/PB3ch06_ss5.htm

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