I doubt many people on either side of the fence are surprised that the referendum on Manchester’s congestion charge resulted in a resounding “no” vote. Apart from the fact that the plan itself was a great deal more complicated than that in London, people will, simply, probably not vote for environmentally-sound measures – not now, and not at all, probably, until it’s too late. Why? Because we are basically selfish.

I have no doubt that the vast majority of Mancunians simply felt that a congestion charge was an added cost they couldn’t justify, an added inconvenience they couldn’t countenance, and perhaps even a restriction on going where they want, when they want that was too much to bear.

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Some of the predictions are uncannily accurate, yet others are more than a little wide of the mark. We’ve cherry-picked 14 enviro-related predictions and coupled them with a brief analysis of what actually happened. Enjoy.

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>>More on trains at Green Options

The bill, an amended rail safety measure, authorizes significant new funding for Amtrak at $5.3 billion in capital grants, $2.9 billion in operating grants and $1.9 billion for intercity passenger rail over five years.

The House approved the final version on Sept. 24.

The legislation would also toughen rail safety programs, including mandating rail companies to equip their cars with sensors to help avoid crashes (a provision that gained new-found support following the train collision that killed 25 people in California last month).

The Bush administration threatened to veto the Amtrak bill that the House passed back in June, but has yet to comment on the measure now being considered by the Senate.

Image credit: reivax via flickr under a Creative Commons License

7. Prediction: “No Foods will be Exposed. Storekeepers who expose food to air breathed out by patrons or to the atmosphere of the busy streets will be arrested with those who sell stale or adulterated produce. Liquid-air refrigerators will keep great quantities of food fresh for long intervals.”

What happened: Refrigeration along all points of the food distribution chain is now ubiquitous in the U.S.  Ironically, however, many foods that are refrigerated are still exposed to open air as they are displayed in your grocer’s food-case. While not an unhealthy practice, per se, because the foods are largely over-wrapped in layers of virtually impenetrable plastic, saying it is energy inefficient would be an understatement.

8. Prediction: “Coal will not be used for heating or cooking. It will be scarce, but not entirely exhausted. The earth’s hard coal will last until the year 2050 or 2100; its soft-coal mines until 2200 or 2300. Meanwhile both kinds of coal will have become more and more expensive. Man will have found electricity manufactured by waterpower to be much cheaper. Every river or creek with any suitable fall will be equipped with water-motors, turning dynamos, making electricity. Along the seacoast will be numerous reservoirs continually filled by waves and tides washing in. Out of these the water will be constantly falling over revolving wheels. All of our restless waters, fresh and salt, will thus be harnessed to do the work which Niagara is doing today: making electricity for heat, light and fuel.”

What happened: Coal is (by and large) not directly used for heating and cooking any more in the U.S. Indirectly, however, coal is still used for heating and cooking in about half of the nation’s homes via the electric grid. As part of the total energy mix, coal provides about 22% of our energy needs, but that includes transportation fuels as well. In terms of the U.S. electricity mix, coal provides about half of the country’s capacity, though that number reaches as high as three quarters in some areas.

9. Prediction: “Vegetables Grown by Electricity. Winter will be turned into summer and night into day by the farmer. In cold weather he will place heat-conducting electric wires under the soil of his garden and thus warm his growing plants. He will also grow large gardens under glass. At night his vegetables will be bathed in powerful electric light, serving, like sunlight, to hasten their growth. Electric currents applied to the soil will make valuable plants grow larger and faster, and will kill troublesome weeds. Rays of colored light will hasten the growth of many plants. Electricity applied to garden seeds will make them sprout and develop unusually early.”

What happened: Growing plants indoors under electric lights has become commonplace in the United States and elsewhere. But exactly what is being grown under lights may not have been what Watkins had in mind.

10. Prediction: “Strawberries as large as apples will be eaten by our great great grandchildren for their Christmas dinners a hundred years hence. Raspberries and blackberries will be as large. One will suffice for the fruit course of each person. Strawberries and cranberries will be grown upon tall bushes. Cranberries, gooseberries and currants will be as large as oranges. One cantaloupe will supply an entire family. Melons, cherries, grapes, plums, apples, pears, peaches and all berries will be seedless. Figs will be cultivated over the entire United States.”

What happened: There is no question that fruits and vegetables are bigger than they used to be. One trip into the modern supermarket one will see not only huge strawberries, but also enormous apples, giant bananas, and so on. But what we have gained in size, we have lost in taste, as the larger fruits and vegetables are bred for commercial success and to survive long journeys from farm to table. Continued…

11. Prediction: “There will be no wild animals except in menageries. Rats and mice will have been exterminated. The horse will have become practically extinct. A few of high breed will be kept by the rich for racing, hunting and exercise. The automobile will have driven out the horse. Cattle and sheep will have no horns. They will be unable to run faster than the fattened hog of today. A century ago the wild hog could outrun a horse. Food animals will be bred to expend practically all of their life energy in producing meat, milk, wool and other by-products. Horns, bones, muscles and lungs will have been neglected.”

What happened: This prediction starts off weak and finishes with a flurry. There are plenty of rats and mice; horses are not nearly extinct, but they are used mostly for recreational purposes, as Watkins suggested.

12. Prediction: “To England in Two Days. Fast electric ships, crossing the ocean at more than a mile a minute, will go from New York to Liverpool in two days. The bodies of these ships will be built above the waves. They will be supported upon runners, somewhat like those of the sleigh. These runners will be very buoyant. Upon their under sides will be apertures expelling jets of air. In this way a film of air will be kept between them and the water’s surface. This film, together with the small surface of the runners, will reduce friction against the waves to the smallest possible degree. Propellers turned by electricity will screw themselves through both the water beneath and the air above. Ships with cabins artificially cooled will be entirely fireproof. In storm they will dive below the water and there await fair weather.”

What happened: Design-wise, Watkins was pretty spot-on with this one. But the ocean-going vessels he wrote of are used more often for short-run ferry trips (i.e London-Amsterdam).

13. Prediction: “There will probably be from 350,000,000 to 500,000,000 people in America and its possessions by the lapse of another century. Nicaragua will ask for admission to our Union after the completion of the great canal. Mexico will be next. Europe, seeking more territory to the south of us, will cause many of the South and Central American republics to be voted into the Union by their own people.”

What happened: As I write, the Census Bureau reports the U.S. population to be 305,740,570. The number falls short of what Watkins predicted, but not by much. Watkins’ prediction would have been closer if: A) The rate of population growth not slowed substantially, and; B) Had we not been involved in several long wars/conflicts/occupations/etc., taking the lives of close to a million Americans.

14. Prediction: Hot and Cold Air from Spigots. Hot or cold air will be turned on from spigots to regulate the temperature of a house as we now turn on hot or cold water from spigots to regulate the temperature of the bath. Central plants will supply this cool air and heat to city houses in the same way as now our gas or electricity is furnished. Rising early to build the furnace fire will be a task of the olden times. Homes will have no chimneys, because no smoke will be created within their walls.

What happened: Yes and no. We usually only have one ’spigot’ that delivers both hot and cold air. Central heating and cooling is something that has not caught on in the U.S. as it has elsewhere. Iceland, for example, has an excellent geothermal network that meets the heating and hot water requirements for around 87% of the nations’ housing.

All images except © Jan Cerovsky (coal-fired power plant) are via flickr under a Creative Commons License; wjarretc (high-speed train); Geral Yuvallo (mosquito); foilman (horse & carriage); redjar (grocery refrigeration); markus hoppe (black rose); fihliwe (gridlock); tigerzeye (fighter jets); wot nxt (greenhouse); jeredb (strawberry); MotoWebMistress (horses); phillipC (ferry).