There’s so much glee and gloating in the deniers’ headlines: “Central Plank of Global Warming Alarmism Discredited” (referring to MIT researcher Kerry Emanuel’s recent finding that climate change might not result in more and stronger hurricanes), “Uncommon Cold is an Antidote to Warming Fears” (it’s been cold this winter, hasn’t it?), “Global Warming Gets the Cold Freeze” (ditto). Yup, a budget crunch for snow-removal in Chicago and cold iguanas falling from trees in Florida sure proves all those hundreds of silly IPCC scientists wrong.

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Photo courtesy of Gyre via Wikimedia Commons.

Growing up in the southeast we were very familiar with summer thunderheads and tornado drills. At school we practiced ducking for cover in cinderblock hallways and were vaguely aware of the language of dangerous weather. Tornado warnings meant nothing at all; tornado watches were almost as distracting at school; air raid sirens were rare but frightening. Almost everyone had a distant “cousin” who had seen a real tornado.

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An NBC local journalist reported hearing the delight in his niece’s voice as she woke him up to look at the view. He writes, “It was much more beautiful than can be described; a scene I have not seen before in my lifetime in Baghdad. … I thanked God for granting Iraqis the chance to watch the snow falling and I prayed that God will bring peace, happiness, success, and love in each white pure piece of snow.”

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As I said, it’s not really your top spot for living at the moment.

Beyond my Borders

Sadly, Australia isn’t the only country suffering at the moment (though we are definitely one of the worst hit at the moment). All across the globe countries are suffering from various meteorological scenarios.

Africa is currently suffering from flooding that has affected more than a million people. 20 African countries are currently being belted by abnormal weather, stretching in an arc across sub-Saharan Africa from Mauritania to Kenya.

La Niña normally brings above average rains to Sahel – the boundary zone in Africa between the Sahara to the north and the more fertile region to the south. But due to the warmer conditions in the Indian Ocean brought about by La Niña, the rainbelt has broadened.

“In the East African countries, particularly Kenya, Somalia and parts of Tanzania and Uganda, La Niña could influence the short rainy season in October-November-December, in the way where less rain than average could occur,” said Omar Baddour, head of the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme at the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

Moving north-west and we find that America has been affected by the same weather pattern, but in an entirely different manner. The south-west and east of America has been afflicted by drought, bringing water restrictions and wildfire concerns to the inhabitants.

Texas fire officials are bracing for what could be a bout of bad wildfires, given the predicted increase in heat. Worse, with added humidity and low rainfall, the entire area is suffering.

The Cause behind it All

The story title essentially gave away the answer, but that isn’t really the point. La Niña is causing havoc the world over and it’s not doing it by the textbook either.

Africa and America – while well beaten by La Niña – are suffering predictable and historically accurate meteorological effects. However the same cannot be said for Australia and Indonesia, as we receive the brunt of an irregularity.

“The drought that’s going on in Australia right now is a very serious drought and it is one of the atypical situations associated with this particular La Nina event,” said WMO climate specialist Leslie Malone.

“The textbooks would have said that Australia would have had a problem with more precipitation than they could handle rather than less,” she told journalists, underlining that the current La Nina was “untypical”

Not Helping…

So while Africa and America are suffering from typical La Niña events, Australia and Indonesia are suffering from an atypical La Niña event. But this is because (bare with me, I’m learning as I go) of what has recently been called the Indian Ocean Dipole.

I won’t try and re-explain it any better than how Wikipedia has put it;

A positive phase [of the IOD which we are suffering from] sees greater-than-average sea-surface temperatures and greater precipitation in the western Indian Ocean region, with a corresponding cooling of waters in the eastern Indian Ocean—which tends to cause droughts in adjacent land areas of Indonesia and Australia.

The World Meteorological Organization recently announced that the Indian Ocean Dipole was currently wreaking havoc. The IOD causes cooler waters in the north-east of the Indian Ocean, while simultaneously causing warmer temperatures off the eastern coast of Africa, the western part of the Indian.

The End in Sight

All of this leads up to the fact that the WMO is predicting this current La Niña event to hang around in to the first quarter of2008. Sea levels have dropped 1.5 degrees Celsius over the period, causing the above worldwide problems.

Having strengthened over the past nine months, the oceanic temperature levels are indicated by the blue patch, stretching across the Pacific Ocean. The images were collected by the U.S-French Jason altimetric satellite, under NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.

Our only hope is that the La Niña will come to a close, by the first quarter of next year, and not continue to strengthen. From a purely personal and patriotic standpoint, I know for a fact that we can’t last indefinitely like this. Farmers have only one planting season left, before the majority will go bankrupt without rain. Even so, loans are being processed and the national government is once again providing financial incentives and relief packages to stricken farmers.

The WMO and the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will be continually monitoring the Pacific. For further information, check out the collaborative report from the WMO, NMHS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
AFP via PhysOrg - La Nina anomaly behind Australian drought: UN weather agency

IRIN News - La Niña: Worst is yet to come, warn climatologists

AP via MSNBC - La Nina predicted to stick around for 5 months

WMO - La Niña Established in Eastern Equatorial Pacific, Likely To Continue into 2008

And, for five Asian nations, they are initiating a new course focused and designed around preparing for bigger floods.

Experts from China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Nepal and Sri Lanka will head to the U.N. University in Thailand to partake in the three-month course. Focused around making an effort to foresee and mitigate flood damage, the course has been initiated as a result of the rise in storm severity and frequency in the region.

The course, announced on the 15th, was spurred by the scientific belief that many of the cities and mass-population areas in these countries are under risk of being submerged.

As the most frequent and deadly natural disaster in Asia, floods have long been a way of life. However, we only need to look at the past several months to see that the severity has grown. More than 3,000 people have been killed in the recent monsoons and storms, affecting a total of 100 million people, and racking up property damage well in to the billions of dollars.

"Floods created the fertile plains on which agriculture and populations have flourished," says Janos Bogardi, Vice-Rector of UNU, which leads the training programme.

The success of control systems, coupled with fast-growing populations, has drawn more people and investment into flood-prone areas, driving up the stakes involved in a catastrophic storm. With climate change threatening to increase the intensity, frequency and magnitude of storms, the time to assess the risk to people and property, and to act on that information, is now.

The pilot program set up by the UNU involves a total of six weeks hands-on, and a subsequent eight weeks of onsite activities to train officials in creating "what if" scenarios. These scenarios include:

• Estimate probable maximum precipitation and model extreme floods;
• Develop worst case estimates of flood peaks and simulate inundation; and
• Assess the number of people and the fragility of property under threat in flood zones.

Furthermore, the course will attempt to implement case studies that will help trainees and trainers alike to design appropriate mitigation measures, and work to standardize damage estimation methodologies for flood prediction. Case studies — which are rare due to the technology needed to design such simulations — will be acquired from Japan – one of the few countries technologically advanced to do so.

Other cases will include the 1991 storm that dropped half-meter of rain on Ormoc City, Philippines, in just six hours, resulting in more than 5,000 deaths; the three days of rainfall in December 1999 in northern Venezuela, which resulted in massive mudslides that killed tens of thousands and caused some $3.5 billion in economic damage; and flood experiences of Hanoi, Vietnam, home to nearly four million people.

Prior to a follow-up meeting, students will be provided with a state of the art GIS (Geographic Information System) so that they can create fully rendered 3-D models to run more effective simulations.

"It may be human nature to gamble rather than invest when rare but potentially large losses are involved. However, climate change is changing the odds of the gamble — the threat of catastrophic flood is growing, and with it the importance of devoting time and resources to remove the consequences of surprise," says Srikantha Herath, Senior Academic Officer at UNU. "We need to anticipate and prepare now for the growing intensity and frequency of storms said to lie ahead."

When a catastrophic storm hits, it is extremely difficult to prevent widespread flooding. The emphasis should be shifted from the impossibility of ‘fail-safe’ systems to ’safe-fail’ — knowing in advance the steps needed to minimize damage and destruction when rare catastrophic floods overwhelm even the best systems.

UNU: Preparing for Bigger Floods (PDF) via ENN: Five Asian nations to study flood, climate risks

Knowing where to look is absolutely key, because much of NOAA’s most fascinating information lies hidden under less-than-obvious links and subdirectories. I’ve even made mental notes about certain sections I found really interesting, only to have a heck of a time finding those sections again later. So to make it easier to explore the wealth of information NOAA provides, I thought I’d offer a virtual tour of some of the web site’s highlights.

Whether you’re looking for news about the air quality in Phoenix today, the chance of a tsunami in Alaska or the chance for severe storms in Tulsa, this is the section to start with. The All-Hazard Monitor provides background information and news about everything from coral bleaching, droughts, earthquakes, flooding, oil spills and rip currents to national weather hazards and warnings, volcanic ash advisories, Pacific tsunami warnings and fire weather forecasts.

Climate

Starting from this section, you can search 108 years of weather data for the U.S.; check monthly and seasonal outlooks for temperature, precipitation and el Nino/la Nina events; find a slew of information on global climate change; and track real-time news about sea-surface temperatures and winds through the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Project. There’s also an online Carbon Tracker that provides ongoing updates of carbon dioxide release and absorption over North America.

Fisheries

NOAA’s Fisheries Service features everything from the latest prices for Boston lobster and conservation news about marine turtles to shark attack information, a fish FAQ and audio files of whale songs (look about three-quarters of the way down the left-hand navigation bar to find links).

National Marine Sanctuaries

The U.S. has 13 protected marine areas dubbed national sanctuaries and another protected area called the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Marine National Monument. Starting from this section, you can find direct links to the websites for each one of them: the Great Lakes’ Thunder Bay, Stellwagen Bank at Masschusetts Bay, the Monitor, Gray’s Reef off of Georgia, the Florida Keys, the Flower Garden Banks off the Texas and Louisiana coasts, Fagatele Bay in American Samoa, the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale sanctuary, Papahānaumokuākea (that’s gotta be Hawaiian, right?), the Channel Islands, Monterey Bay, Gulf of the Farallones, Cordell Bank and Olympic Coast.

You’ll also find news about marine sanctuary expeditions, a library of educational materials and a guide to "ocean etiquette."

NOAA Fun for Kids

This section for kids, teachers and parents features downloadable desktop wallpaper; an ocean challenge puzzle; downloadable "Discovery Kits" with tutorials, data and lesson plans about corals, currents, geodesy, non-point source pollution, tides and water levels: and information about subjects like coral reef conservation.

Again, it’s easy to get lost in myriad pages, sections and subsections of NOAA’s Website, but it’s a site definitely worth exploring. Whatever your interest in nature and natural phenomena, you’ll likely be overwhelmed at the quantity of information you can find here.

In the Northern Hemisphere, the heat is on.

There’s no doubt summer is here — and with it, the perpetual quest to stay cool. For those of us interested in sustainability, the thought of huge summer cooling bills (and all the greenhouse emissions they cause) is enough to send a chill down the spine.

You’ve probably already heard the basics of summertime energy management: keep your air conditioner filters clean; make sure your weather stripping is tight; draw the drapes during the heat of the day; and avoid the use of big heat-creating appliances like ovens and ranges whenever possible. If you want a quick review of hot weather energy-saving ideas , check Lighter Footstep’s Giant List of Summer Cooling Tips.

But there are other ways to keep your cool through the summer. We’ve rounded up five for your consideration, including several tried-and-true methods from the days before central air. Give one or two a shot, and see how they work for you.

Go Tropical

Take the lead of those who spend most of their lives in tropical climates: loose, lightweight cotton and linen clothing rules.

The guayabera, sometimes called the ÒMexican wedding shirt,Ó is constructed to cool you naturally. A relative of the traditional Filipino barong,
the guayabera wicks moisture from the skin and is worn untucked to
promote air circulation. Madras is another good summertime choice for
both men’s and women’s’ clothing.

Don’t forget the old standard of the American Deep South: seersucker.
Originally an Indian import, its crisp cotton and cooling ridges make
it a hot weather classic.

Cool That Pulse Point

When you were sick as a child, you mom may have brought you a cold facecloth. This idea works the same way.

Chill your pulse points by running cold water over your wrist for a minute or so each hour. Splashing water on your temples or face can produce a similar effect. And be sure to put some of that tap water into a glass and stay hydrated.

Don’t Eat: Graze

Ever notice how you feel hot after a big meal? It’s not just because the food was served warm.

Big, protein-laden meals force your body to stoke its metabolic fires. The solution is to break up your eating into smaller, more frequent meals. You’ll feel cooler — and it’s better for you, anyway.

Eat to Sweat

Latin America, India, Thailand — some of the world’s hottest places. And they happen to serve some of the world’s hottest foods.

Scientists have argued for years over why this is the case, but the most likely reason is that spicy foods make you sweat without actually raising body temperature. Chalk it up to capsaicin, a chemical found in things like hot peppers. Once your skin is damp, you’ll feel cooled by its evaporation.

Perhaps it wouldn’t be a bad idea to also reread our article on Choosing a Safer Deodorant.

Stay Cool Under the Covers

A lot of people find it difficult to sleep in hot weather.

Want to cool the bed down? Fill a standard hot water bottle with ice water. Use it to cool your ankles and the back of your knees — it works. You can also try bagging your sheets and tossing them in the freezer for an hour or two before bed.

Cooling your head cools your entire body. Opt for a cool and absorbent pillow of organic cotton it at all possible. Put aside down and latex pillows until the weather cools down this autumn.

Stay hydrated — stay cool — and enjoy an Earth-friendly summer!
—
Copyright © 2007 Lighter Footstep Media

FACTS: "Global warming" is a problematic phrase for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the belief that cold weather somehow invalidates the concept of a global climate crisis. Climate change skeptics are quick to suggest that instances of winter storms (especially when they coincide with activities aimed at addressing "global warming") are evidence that climate change science is flawed.

Rather than exposing climate change as a myth or a mere belief, these skeptics demonstrate the logical fallacy of not seeing the forest for the trees. A recent report by Minnesota's WCCO addresses the problem with using current weather conditions as evidence of broader changes in climate:

"Don't confuse weather with climate," said WCCO's Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas. "Weather is a snapshot, climate is a long term trend."

In other words, weather is what happens at any given moment in the atmosphere while climate is how the atmosphere behaves over decades and centuries.

Paul said the term global warming can be misleading.

"I think a better description is probably climate change because there are going to be regional variations across the globe," he said.

We need to keep a global perspective in mind because while the United States is experience record cold, some of Europe and Asia are seeing record warmth.

"Don't look out the window and make assumptions about long-term climate," said Paul. "But that goes both ways. In the summertime on the hot humid days we can't beat our chest and say this is global warming."

The Drudge Report Loves These Kind of Headlines

Grist's Coby Beck made a similar observation last November; RealClimate addresses some of the problems associated with "global warming.". And as happy as I was to see the Rev. Pat Robertson acknowledging climate change last year, we have to note that his recognition was based on the same logical fallacy as those who claim that winter storms in April are valid evidence of problems with climate science.

Our own David Anderson has suggested a new phrase: "global weirding." Given the multiple strange events we're seeing (rapid extinctions of species, shifts in weather patterns, polar ice melts, etc.), it seems appropriate. What other ways can we better communicate the issue of climate change?